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[Music]

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about tonight is global warming and you

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hopefully all heard the morning session

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where the positions of several of our

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panelists were put forward you know

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david dilly who is a meteorologist and

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peter tans from Noah Gifford Miller from

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the University of Colorado and Henry

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Bauer from Virginia Tech and apparently

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a professional panelist I'm an

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astronomer and astronomers interest in

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weather has mainly to do I'm an optical

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astronomer whether it's cloudy or not

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cloudy so I'm not really I don't have a

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big strong position on global warming

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one way or the other I will say this I

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spent some time in the Netherlands and

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we came back to the States in 1967 and I

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can remember listening to I've never

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been able to remember whether it was the

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Today Show or Johnny Carson but he had

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Robert Jastrow who was a famous

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astronomer of the day on and jestro was

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telling us that we were entering the

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next Ice Age and here we are 30 years

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later and we're having a discussion

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about whether we're going to warm

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ourselves to death so to speak so in any

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case this is an issue that has come up

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and it's fairly active right now I'm

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going to ask each of the panelists to

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sort of review their positions for about

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five minutes each and then there will be

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some time for the panelists to question

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each other a little bit and then we'll

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open it to the floor for the rest

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I'm going to start with Henry Bauer

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because he is the one panelist that

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didn't speak this morning so we need to

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here has what his feelings are about it

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and then we will move I guess just down

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the line

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letting the panelists speak so Henry yes

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and our perspectives are also very

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different to of the speakers this

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morning are actively engaged directly in

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research using the mainstream paradigm

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David ill he really has been conducting

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meta-analysis of an enormous amount of

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data and my perspective is from science

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studies history and sociology of science

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and one of the things that history

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teaches is that the mainstream view on a

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scientific issue is very often too sure

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of itself when you're doing research

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that's perfectly okay but if what the

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researchers say is going to be a basis

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for public action then the criterion of

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certainty has to be rather different and

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what is always forgotten is that there's

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something called the unknown unknown

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there are things which it is simply

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impossible to foresee or to imagine at

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any given time and those are the things

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that periodically pop out at us and make

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us change our point of view now global

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warming is not a matter of research if

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it were we wouldn't have a session like

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this and we wouldn't have international

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panels and we wouldn't have governments

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talking about it global warming is of

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concern because there are proposals that

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will saddle

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every country in the world with enormous

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burdens of changing ways in which

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they're doing things and the involved

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costs because it is being said that it

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is 100 percent certain that emission of

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co2 is producing is adding to the global

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warming in a way that is so dangerous

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that we must do something about it leads

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to a continual bombardment of statements

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like this global warming will propose an

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asthma threat Daily Telegraph 2004 flood

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risk will double in 50 years

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global warming will leave 2 billion

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people worldwide vulnerable to

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catastrophic flooding by 2050 our Energy

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Secretary Steven Chu said California's

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farms and vineyards could vanish by the

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end of the century and its major cities

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could be in jeopardy

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if Americans do not act to slow the

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advance of global warming and so on

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you've been exposed to these things I

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don't believe it is the proper role of

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science to tell policymakers we are a

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hundred percent certain about something

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like this

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Roger pinky who is also at the

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University of Colorado has written a

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book called the honest broker in which

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he points out that the proper role of

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science and of scientists is to tell

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policy makers what is the best evidence

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on any particular issue

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which means including what competent

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experts say who may happen to disagree

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with the mainstream consensus one of my

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reasons for being skeptical that

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human-caused global warming is a hundred

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percent certain is that we were told it

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was certain twenty five years ago or

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more at a time when that could not

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possibly have been known in the light of

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what we've learned since then

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Frederick Seitz who was a physicist

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recipient of the National Medal of

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Freedom and a one-time president of the

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National Academy said about the

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International Panel on Climate Change

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report the report is not what it appears

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to be it's not the version that was

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approved by the contributing scientists

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listed on the title page what they said

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was none of the studies cited above has

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shown clear evidence that we can

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attribute observed changes to the

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specific cause of increase in greenhouse

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gases no study to date has positively

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attributed all or part of the change to

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anthropogenic man-made causes any claims

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of positive detection of significant

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climate change are likely to remain

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controversial until uncertainties in the

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total natural variability of the climate

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system are reduced since then that was

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what do clouds do science magazine 2009

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it's uncertain whether clouds act to

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cool or to war in 2008 in Nature

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Geoscience discovery that methane is

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being produced by plants living plants

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which hadn't been known at that up to

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that time most significant from my point

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of view is that there are thousands of

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qualified experts who disagree that the

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evidence is compelling that human

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actions are causing global warming and

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you can read their statements one of

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them is the so-called Leipzig

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declaration and it was signed by people

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qualified in meteorology and related

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fields who hold prominent positions at

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research places in Austria Australia

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Belgium Britain Canada the Czech

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Republic Germany Holland New Zealand

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Norway Poland Russia Sweden in the

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United States amongst the things that

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might be unknown unknowns two articles

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were published sometime ago showing that

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in deep boreholes the temperature has

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been rising that's not because of the

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increase in temperatures anywhere at the

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surface it's a result of heat rising

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from inside the earth so there's one

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factor that is not being taken in

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to account but there are a bunch of

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others as well so my main point is we

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have here a situation where qualified

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experts disagree with the mainstream

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consensus policymakers however ignoring

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those and I believe that that is not a

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valid thing to do David well if you

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recall this morning I started off by

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saying about 500 years ago they thought

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the world was flat and we know where

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that went in 1972 or in 1970s NASA was

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saying going into an ice age well we

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know where that went

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two thousand four and five strong

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hurricanes but hit Florida everyone was

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saying global warming man-made global

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warming stronger hurricanes and as I

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told you this morning hurricane center

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and myself we both studied Bissell two

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cycles and we had as strong hurricanes

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back in the 1920s it's a cycle and last

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year Mississippi River flood and the big

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outbreak of tornadoes cyclical the

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tornado outbreak comes about every 60

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years Mississippi River flood I track on

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my my model comes every 20 to 23 years

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it's all cyclical everything comes

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pretty much in cycles typical global

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warming cycle comes about every 230

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years its signature is to twin

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temperature peaks of ten years the last

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one that we're going through now 1930s

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and from about 1998 to 2008 or 2010 this

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shows up on every single global warming

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cycle we've had five global warming

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cycles during past twelve hundred years

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and during the past half million years

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2,200 global warming cycles

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however media and everyone else seems to

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want to talk about one global warming

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cycle we have to look at the past to

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find out what the future is a cycle also

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has another cycle and at a 1500 year

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cycle which I didn't talk about this

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morning on a sinusoidal curve every

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1,500 years the global warming cycles

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are warmer now and back between 600 and

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800 AD then you go back every 1,500

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years and you have the warmer cycles co2

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decreases and increases with the cycles

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especially the hundred and sixteen

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thousand year interglacial cycle and

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also as I showed this morning with the

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230 year cycle as seen in the plants

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tomahtoes co2 is a byproduct of global

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warming and it is a very good byproduct

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of global warming as I showed this

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morning the lunar solar procession which

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has gravitational pulses 47 percent

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above the normal lunar lunar phases

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comes in cycles of nine years 72 years

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230 years and a hundred and sixteen

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thousand years right on the same pulse

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as all the global warming cycles and

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also with the Arctic warm water pulse

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that comes about every nine years and

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the strongest Arctic warming pulse about

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every 72 years but twin peaks in the

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global warming cycles the global or

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global cooling will begin by 2018

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coldest part of it will be right around

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2023 to about 2040 2050 and our next

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global warming cycle will be in about

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the year 2150 the Northwest Passage

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whichever one is looking forward to four

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shorter shipping routes will be closing

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down and it will not reopen again for at

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least another 230 years and if it

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doesn't warm enough up enough at that

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time but next opening will be about a

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we're also to wrap it up I show that the

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global warming cycles when they end

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within about 20 years of the ending of

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the global warming cycle in conjunction

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with the strong global cooling cycles

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you have three to four very strong

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volcanoes and it is very typical to have

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a year of no summer with one of the

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volcanoes I'm glad you're making a

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prediction this morning I mentioned or

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talked about what I think are well-known

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facts about climate change so I'll

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summarize it again

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the first well-known fact is that we are

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the cause of the co2 increase there's

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not one piece of evidence that's five or

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six independent pieces of evidence that

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the amount of co2 that very meeting is

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truly amazing nine and half billion tons

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metric tons of carbon per year I will

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put it in a slightly different

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perspective from what I did this morning

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and I don't have billion metric tons of

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carbon is more than the total seasonal

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net drawdown of all the bottle of the

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entire biosphere all forests all plants

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and soils in the northern hemisphere so

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the net seasonal cycle that the total

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amplitude from top to bottom corresponds

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to about five between five and six

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billion metric tons of carbon we human

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00:17:00,050 --> 00:16:54,180
beings are putting in more into the

279
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:06,280
the second important fact is that we

280
00:17:13,460 --> 00:17:10,170
understand how the extra co2 and other

281
00:17:17,180 --> 00:17:13,470
greenhouse gases will retain heat in the

282
00:17:19,730 --> 00:17:17,190
atmosphere and therefore physics in

283
00:17:21,290 --> 00:17:19,740
chemistry tell us I mean our

284
00:17:24,650 --> 00:17:21,300
understanding of quantum mechanics

285
00:17:28,430 --> 00:17:24,660
basically we understand how atoms and

286
00:17:30,980 --> 00:17:28,440
molecules interact with light infrared

287
00:17:33,260 --> 00:17:30,990
light visible light and that

288
00:17:38,870 --> 00:17:33,270
understanding is actually exquisitely

289
00:17:41,690 --> 00:17:38,880
good and it says that the heat a certain

290
00:17:44,090 --> 00:17:41,700
amount of heat currently 1.2 percent of

291
00:17:47,050 --> 00:17:44,100
the amount that we absorb from the Sun

292
00:17:50,570 --> 00:17:47,060
will be retained by the atmosphere

293
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:50,580
therefore warming is inevitable and

294
00:18:04,550 --> 00:17:57,830
now on top of that we have actually

295
00:18:07,550 --> 00:18:04,560
observed warming finally but we do not

296
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:07,560
know very well is how warm or how much

297
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:10,650
the climate will change that is still a

298
00:18:17,990 --> 00:18:14,730
very uncertain matter because of not

299
00:18:19,910 --> 00:18:18,000
very well understood feedbacks and also

300
00:18:23,420 --> 00:18:19,920
because some of these feedbacks take

301
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:23,430
decades to play out and my pessimistic

302
00:18:27,830 --> 00:18:25,530
projection for that is that we will

303
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:27,840
eventually learn how the how the system

304
00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:31,650
works as it happens as we can observe

305
00:18:35,540 --> 00:18:33,960
these feedbacks in coming decades we

306
00:18:40,660 --> 00:18:35,550
will probably learn how it actually

307
00:18:44,270 --> 00:18:40,670
works but then it's also rather late

308
00:18:47,690 --> 00:18:44,280
what's the implication of this the

309
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:47,700
implication is that our imprint on the

310
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:52,170
earth as a human species is now so large

311
00:18:56,360 --> 00:18:54,570
that we are

312
00:18:58,970 --> 00:18:56,370
one could say we are entering a new

313
00:19:02,510 --> 00:18:58,980
geologic era has been called the

314
00:19:06,890 --> 00:19:02,520
Anthropocene where humans really shape

315
00:19:09,140 --> 00:19:06,900
to serve the surface of the earth now a

316
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:09,150
lot of people find that uncomfortable or

317
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:12,090
are not cold they don't want to

318
00:19:18,260 --> 00:19:16,050
acknowledge that because it of I guess

319
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:18,270
because of the implications because what

320
00:19:23,180 --> 00:19:21,090
it means is as soon as we realize that

321
00:19:26,750 --> 00:19:23,190
we are shaping the surface of the earth

322
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:26,760
we are responsible we are as possible to

323
00:19:30,140 --> 00:19:28,650
what we live to occur to future

324
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:30,150
generations our children and

325
00:19:35,090 --> 00:19:32,970
grandchildren and beyond and we have to

326
00:19:37,020 --> 00:19:35,100
actually assume his responsibilities and

327
00:20:11,840 --> 00:19:37,030
act like it

328
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:14,930
that if we look in the object with a

329
00:20:19,100 --> 00:20:17,250
signal this is strong is because whether

330
00:20:20,779 --> 00:20:19,110
the planet warms the Arctic always warms

331
00:20:22,580 --> 00:20:20,789
more when it cools the Arctic cools more

332
00:20:24,799 --> 00:20:22,590
because of a strong trust the feedbacks

333
00:20:27,470 --> 00:20:24,809
and then we can say that warms now

334
00:20:30,830 --> 00:20:27,480
exceeds any warmth over the last five

335
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:30,840
thousand years and with almost similar

336
00:20:35,690 --> 00:20:33,090
assurance in more than thirty thousand

337
00:20:37,430 --> 00:20:35,700
years and that exceeds any of these

338
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:37,440
natural cycles whether they're beating

339
00:20:42,710 --> 00:20:40,250
that scale of decades or even centuries

340
00:20:44,990 --> 00:20:42,720
230 years whatever those cycles are

341
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:45,000
what's happening now is outside the

342
00:20:49,340 --> 00:20:46,890
range of those cycler because the warms

343
00:20:51,230 --> 00:20:49,350
now exceeds any thing that we've seen in

344
00:20:53,930 --> 00:20:51,240
at least five thousand years of probably

345
00:20:56,029 --> 00:20:53,940
several tens of thousands of players and

346
00:20:58,010 --> 00:20:56,039
that's that's basic evidence and I think

347
00:21:03,470 --> 00:20:58,020
the observational evidence always will

348
00:21:05,029 --> 00:21:03,480
chronicle models and theories co2 is is

349
00:21:07,460 --> 00:21:05,039
something we've understood for a long

350
00:21:10,270 --> 00:21:07,470
time sponte Arrhenius back in the 1800s

351
00:21:13,159 --> 00:21:10,280
was the giobertis to chemist worked out

352
00:21:15,740 --> 00:21:13,169
the basic mechanisms of co2 is

353
00:21:17,510 --> 00:21:15,750
greenhouse gases and Amenia spumoni the

354
00:21:20,330 --> 00:21:17,520
fact that we weren't burning more fossil

355
00:21:23,029 --> 00:21:20,340
fuels because this was later license it

356
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:23,039
was Chloe Swedish is cold up there he

357
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:24,570
was saying if we could just burn any

358
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:26,250
more fossil fuels the plant would warm

359
00:21:31,490 --> 00:21:29,250
up this isn't a new theory or a new idea

360
00:21:34,130 --> 00:21:31,500
this has been around for over 100 years

361
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:34,140
there's no uncertainty

362
00:21:47,210 --> 00:21:44,970
that co2 anymore co2 increase the people

363
00:21:49,820 --> 00:21:47,220
who spend their lives studying how the

364
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:49,830
climate system works and willing to sign

365
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:52,770
on that at 95% confidence the

366
00:21:58,760 --> 00:21:56,010
anthropogenic addition of co2 is warming

367
00:22:02,510 --> 00:21:58,770
the planet now if I was the CEO of

368
00:22:04,910 --> 00:22:02,520
ExxonMobil and my geophysicist told me

369
00:22:10,340 --> 00:22:04,920
they had 95% confidence there was a pool

370
00:22:12,290 --> 00:22:10,350
of oil my engineers had 95% confidence

371
00:22:15,050 --> 00:22:12,300
that schools were available extract that

372
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:15,060
safely I would invest large sums of

373
00:22:20,890 --> 00:22:18,090
money following a 95 percent odds that

374
00:22:24,530 --> 00:22:20,900
there is a chance of an expected

375
00:22:25,850 --> 00:22:24,540
resource there so I think that 95% level

376
00:22:27,830 --> 00:22:25,860
of confidence is announced that we

377
00:22:32,180 --> 00:22:27,840
should be paid serious attention to it

378
00:22:35,060 --> 00:22:32,190
so there's there's really no longer a

379
00:22:36,710 --> 00:22:35,070
debate whether the place certainly mat

380
00:22:38,660 --> 00:22:36,720
that the plan is for me not to desert

381
00:22:43,780 --> 00:22:38,670
you and your goal in there there we

382
00:22:45,450 --> 00:22:43,790
debate should do about the discussion

383
00:22:47,610 --> 00:22:45,460
next time

384
00:22:50,250 --> 00:22:47,620
you mean next year you hold that debate

385
00:22:51,659 --> 00:22:50,260
the planets warming we're responsible

386
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:51,669
what should we do because it's not

387
00:22:57,450 --> 00:22:55,210
obvious what the best friends are big

388
00:22:58,409 --> 00:22:57,460
steps forward there's really three

389
00:23:00,180 --> 00:22:58,419
pieces to it

390
00:23:05,700 --> 00:23:00,190
there's acknowledgement that this is an

391
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:05,710
issue you have to have and then there's

392
00:23:10,710 --> 00:23:09,010
an adaptation computer missed our point

393
00:23:12,690 --> 00:23:10,720
this morning that the changes are going

394
00:23:16,049 --> 00:23:12,700
to come no matter what we do so we have

395
00:23:18,120 --> 00:23:16,059
to learn develop adaptation strategies

396
00:23:21,899 --> 00:23:18,130
and the other one is mitigation because

397
00:23:24,450 --> 00:23:21,909
the most serious threat to humans is not

398
00:23:26,580 --> 00:23:24,460
the warming planet the end product is

399
00:23:28,620 --> 00:23:26,590
probably something like the Pliocene for

400
00:23:31,019 --> 00:23:28,630
geology people pay attention to what's

401
00:23:33,180 --> 00:23:31,029
in the past it's not necessarily a worse

402
00:23:35,460 --> 00:23:33,190
world the thing that we have the

403
00:23:38,730 --> 00:23:35,470
greatest difficulty in accommodating

404
00:23:41,100 --> 00:23:38,740
gives abrupt changes and if we don't

405
00:23:43,039 --> 00:23:41,110
mitigate those forcings that we're

406
00:23:46,230 --> 00:23:43,049
adding the chances of there being

407
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:46,240
unexpected unknown unknowns abrupt

408
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:48,970
changes this simply increases so we have

409
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:52,330
a responsibility to our children to

410
00:23:58,560 --> 00:23:55,450
mitigate what's

411
00:24:00,990 --> 00:23:58,570
thank you and so what I think we should

412
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:01,000
do now is ask if you have questions for

413
00:24:03,630 --> 00:24:01,570
each other

414
00:24:05,550 --> 00:24:03,640
and we'll take a few minutes for that if

415
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:05,560
you do if you don't we all go on for the

416
00:24:11,550 --> 00:24:08,530
audience I have a comment for Henry okay

417
00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:11,560
Peter scientists never have 100%

418
00:24:19,260 --> 00:24:15,370
certainty and what the IPCC reports

419
00:24:22,650 --> 00:24:19,270
state they never state 100% they stay

420
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:22,660
very confident confident reasonably

421
00:24:27,630 --> 00:24:25,330
governing and they have assigned numbers

422
00:24:31,740 --> 00:24:27,640
to that actually what that means high

423
00:24:34,890 --> 00:24:31,750
confidence etc it is never certain like

424
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:34,900
gives it if physical scientists say

425
00:24:39,650 --> 00:24:37,090
that's something that are very confident

426
00:24:42,450 --> 00:24:39,660
of something you better pay attention I

427
00:24:45,830 --> 00:24:42,460
also want to point out that the summary

428
00:24:49,380 --> 00:24:45,840
for policy makers of the IPCC is

429
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:49,390
exceedingly conservative in its

430
00:24:55,020 --> 00:24:53,170
statements it is not just what the the

431
00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:55,030
lead authors of the chapters put

432
00:25:01,560 --> 00:24:58,090
together know the summary for policy

433
00:25:04,430 --> 00:25:01,570
makers who have been signed off on by

434
00:25:07,380 --> 00:25:04,440
representatives of every government

435
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:07,390
including the Bush administration you

436
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:09,970
know so you can imagine this is a very

437
00:25:15,930 --> 00:25:12,850
conservative statement and you better

438
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:15,940
pay attention to what it says it says

439
00:25:22,710 --> 00:25:18,490
yes this is a serious issue not that

440
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:22,720
anybody has actually done anything so

441
00:25:29,700 --> 00:25:24,730
it's much more nuanced and the way you

442
00:25:33,810 --> 00:25:29,710
presented it 95 percent is not a hundred

443
00:25:38,610 --> 00:25:33,820
percent what the policymakers are being

444
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:38,620
told is that there is no doubt that the

445
00:25:47,490 --> 00:25:42,490
production of co2 is adding to global

446
00:25:50,230 --> 00:25:47,500
warming in a dangerous fashion ten years

447
00:25:51,850 --> 00:25:50,240
ago Bjorn Lomborg

448
00:25:55,510 --> 00:25:51,860
a book called The Skeptical

449
00:25:59,530 --> 00:25:55,520
environmentalist and he didn't question

450
00:26:03,040 --> 00:25:59,540
that co2 is causing adding to global

451
00:26:06,010 --> 00:26:03,050
warming but he pointed out that all of

452
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:06,020
the solutions being proposed namely to

453
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:10,570
cut down the rate of emission of co2

454
00:26:19,299 --> 00:26:14,570
would not have an appreciable enough

455
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:19,309
effect to make it unnecessary to adapt

456
00:26:27,360 --> 00:26:24,050
to the global warming changes and that

457
00:26:32,470 --> 00:26:27,370
therefore it would make a lot of sense

458
00:26:36,220 --> 00:26:32,480
not to try to cut co2 emissions but to

459
00:26:39,010 --> 00:26:36,230
plan for adaptations to rising sea

460
00:26:44,230 --> 00:26:39,020
levels and so on what happened to

461
00:26:45,220 --> 00:26:44,240
Lomborg he was in a book review in

462
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:45,230
Nature

463
00:26:52,950 --> 00:26:48,770
he was compared with a Holocaust denier

464
00:26:58,960 --> 00:26:52,960
list for saying that it was not

465
00:27:00,640 --> 00:26:58,970
necessary to cut co2 emissions are there

466
00:27:05,169 --> 00:27:00,650
other questions amongst the panel I'd

467
00:27:07,540 --> 00:27:05,179
like to comment on I believe it's

468
00:27:11,790 --> 00:27:07,550
probably about 10 years ago the IPCC

469
00:27:16,230 --> 00:27:11,800
came out and with about a 95% confidence

470
00:27:18,970 --> 00:27:16,240
level saying we're gonna continue having

471
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:18,980
global warming it's gonna increase by an

472
00:27:25,930 --> 00:27:21,050
X amount of degrees in the next 10 years

473
00:27:28,900 --> 00:27:25,940
20 years yes it's on now that was a 95

474
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:28,910
percent confidence although back about

475
00:27:32,620 --> 00:27:29,690
10 years ago

476
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:32,630
however just a couple years ago they had

477
00:27:36,790 --> 00:27:34,730
to revise the forecast the temperature

478
00:27:39,310 --> 00:27:36,800
did not go up during that 10 year period

479
00:27:40,780 --> 00:27:39,320
and a couple years ago they said while

480
00:27:42,820 --> 00:27:40,790
the temperatures are now going to remain

481
00:27:44,530 --> 00:27:42,830
flat for the next 10 years and then

482
00:27:47,410 --> 00:27:44,540
we're gonna have warming taking off

483
00:27:50,740 --> 00:27:47,420
again so just a matter of five years

484
00:27:52,990 --> 00:27:50,750
they shot their 95 percent way down

485
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:53,000
already beat they lost their out

486
00:27:55,750 --> 00:27:54,650
forecast or a fear they had to revise

487
00:27:59,049 --> 00:27:55,760
their forecast

488
00:28:02,030 --> 00:27:59,059
so we're 95% confidence level is much

489
00:28:04,310 --> 00:28:02,040
much lower than 95% by confu

490
00:28:06,500 --> 00:28:04,320
full of natural cycles because they had

491
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:06,510
to recognize a natural cycle that was

492
00:28:10,460 --> 00:28:08,610
keeping temperature about the same for

493
00:28:12,290 --> 00:28:10,470
ten years they they recognized the

494
00:28:14,570 --> 00:28:12,300
natural cycle and I showed you the

495
00:28:17,210 --> 00:28:14,580
natural cycles they have a 95%

496
00:28:20,450 --> 00:28:17,220
confidence level that's much lower than

497
00:28:22,610 --> 00:28:20,460
that now I have a 99% confidence level

498
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:22,620
that the natural cycles are gonna be the

499
00:28:33,170 --> 00:28:31,410
dominant factor ninety-nine ninety-nine

500
00:28:42,380 --> 00:28:33,180
point nine percent and what about that

501
00:28:45,410 --> 00:28:42,390
one I'm not questioning that human

502
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:45,420
actions are producing appreciable

503
00:28:54,230 --> 00:28:50,370
effects I think our greatest problem is

504
00:28:56,750 --> 00:28:54,240
there are too many people on earth one

505
00:29:02,200 --> 00:28:56,760
of the greatest problems of using fossil

506
00:29:06,110 --> 00:29:02,210
fuels is that they distribute I randomly

507
00:29:10,340 --> 00:29:06,120
heavy metals which are toxic and which

508
00:29:16,900 --> 00:29:10,350
will never be able to be removed again

509
00:29:21,230 --> 00:29:16,910
and it environmental quality in general

510
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:21,240
decreases but human actions are not

511
00:29:31,340 --> 00:29:26,330
adding to global warming because of co2

512
00:29:33,950 --> 00:29:31,350
emissions to get over there I have a

513
00:29:44,030 --> 00:29:38,960
[Music]

514
00:29:48,630 --> 00:29:44,040
the evidence is not conclusive that

515
00:29:52,140 --> 00:29:48,640
emission of co2 is adding to the rate of

516
00:29:57,140 --> 00:29:52,150
global warm okay David yes I have a

517
00:30:03,330 --> 00:29:57,150
question this morning wonderful talk on

518
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:03,340
on the open e Arctic the glacier which

519
00:30:09,990 --> 00:30:06,370
you say has as smallness now than it has

520
00:30:14,190 --> 00:30:10,000
been in 5000 years or over 37,000 years

521
00:30:18,030 --> 00:30:14,200
and what I was kind of wondering is the

522
00:30:19,770 --> 00:30:18,040
cycles is talking about cycles where the

523
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:19,780
global warming cycles are the warmest

524
00:30:24,930 --> 00:30:22,930
every 12-15 hundred years every fifteen

525
00:30:28,890 --> 00:30:24,940
hundred years and you you keep saying it

526
00:30:30,270 --> 00:30:28,900
was warmer it's warmer now but it was

527
00:30:33,150 --> 00:30:30,280
5000 years ago

528
00:30:35,190 --> 00:30:33,160
however 5,000 years ago 6,000 years ago

529
00:30:37,950 --> 00:30:35,200
there was 50 percent less ice in the

530
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:37,960
Arctic and if you look at the figures on

531
00:30:43,290 --> 00:30:39,610
the temperatures there was much warmer

532
00:30:45,570 --> 00:30:43,300
back at that time but it is now and as

533
00:30:47,250 --> 00:30:45,580
far as the glacier every 1,500 years

534
00:30:48,900 --> 00:30:47,260
when we had the warmer global warming

535
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:48,910
cycles that Galatia would be getting

536
00:30:53,130 --> 00:30:50,650
smaller and smaller and smaller so of

537
00:30:56,130 --> 00:30:53,140
course it's smaller today but it was

538
00:31:06,930 --> 00:30:56,140
5000 years ago it should be smaller than

539
00:31:09,180 --> 00:31:06,940
today this is a natural cycle I thought

540
00:31:10,590 --> 00:31:09,190
you said today we're warm up and well

541
00:31:27,620 --> 00:31:10,600
you have been in front passed by a

542
00:31:45,650 --> 00:31:30,620
so are we warmer or are we colder than

543
00:31:48,260 --> 00:31:45,660
5,000 years ago then why did way of 50%

544
00:32:09,980 --> 00:31:48,270
less ice in the Arctic five to six

545
00:32:11,690 --> 00:32:09,990
thousand years ago I have a graphic on

546
00:32:14,060 --> 00:32:11,700
my computer but shows the temperatures

547
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:14,070
5000 years ago the created temperature

548
00:32:18,230 --> 00:32:17,730
you can never warm up I've never seen

549
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:18,240
that data

550
00:32:23,630 --> 00:32:20,850
I'll show it to you it's clear that

551
00:32:24,250 --> 00:32:23,640
we're not getting very far on the panel

552
00:32:28,610 --> 00:32:24,260
up here

553
00:32:31,850 --> 00:32:28,620
so now's an opportunity for you to ask

554
00:32:34,340 --> 00:32:31,860
questions and add input I would like you

555
00:32:37,279 --> 00:32:34,350
to give your name and if it's a question

556
00:32:41,710 --> 00:32:37,289
that would be ideal if you just want to

557
00:32:43,820 --> 00:32:41,720
make a statement keep it very short yes

558
00:32:45,500 --> 00:32:43,830
make sure it's turned on there's a

559
00:32:47,810 --> 00:32:45,510
switch somewhere there got it underneath

560
00:32:49,630 --> 00:32:47,820
I think we got it now okay thank you

561
00:32:53,149 --> 00:32:49,640
very much for a very interesting

562
00:32:55,010 --> 00:32:53,159
comments I think there is a rational

563
00:32:58,159 --> 00:32:55,020
approach to this and I guess this

564
00:33:01,130 --> 00:32:58,169
dovetails on what Henry was saying if we

565
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:01,140
were to cut co2 emissions like right

566
00:33:06,039 --> 00:33:02,250
away all of a sudden you know

567
00:33:09,169 --> 00:33:06,049
drastically no I said I expect that

568
00:33:12,980 --> 00:33:09,179
warming would continue anyway it does

569
00:33:16,789 --> 00:33:12,990
seem to me that in this era particularly

570
00:33:19,279 --> 00:33:16,799
in this austere area if we are to decide

571
00:33:22,340 --> 00:33:19,289
where to spend scarce financial

572
00:33:24,740 --> 00:33:22,350
resources on how to deal with it we

573
00:33:26,870 --> 00:33:24,750
would try to reduce the human footprint

574
00:33:29,210 --> 00:33:26,880
not just carbon but you know with the

575
00:33:30,790 --> 00:33:29,220
reduction of species lack of fresh water

576
00:33:34,330 --> 00:33:30,800
I mean there's any number

577
00:33:36,730 --> 00:33:34,340
seems like the adaptation that Henry was

578
00:33:38,860 --> 00:33:36,740
talking about would be where to put our

579
00:33:41,770 --> 00:33:38,870
scarce financial resources as far as

580
00:33:43,780 --> 00:33:41,780
dealing with it regardless of what the

581
00:34:32,230 --> 00:33:43,790
science says about co2 emissions and

582
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:32,240
warming if it rises slowly I want to say

583
00:34:39,610 --> 00:34:34,610
the last because right that if we were

584
00:34:41,610 --> 00:34:39,620
to stop co2 emission 100% right now the

585
00:34:45,240 --> 00:34:41,620
earth would still continue to warm

586
00:34:48,850 --> 00:34:45,250
because the oceans haven't yet caught up

587
00:34:51,370 --> 00:34:48,860
with the present level of co2 there's a

588
00:34:53,610 --> 00:34:51,380
half a degree or centigrade or so of

589
00:34:56,470 --> 00:34:53,620
warming is already in the pipeline

590
00:35:00,220 --> 00:34:56,480
nobody is saying that we should cut co2

591
00:35:02,860 --> 00:35:00,230
emissions suddenly that's a disaster we

592
00:35:05,290 --> 00:35:02,870
all know that now what we ought to do is

593
00:35:08,110 --> 00:35:05,300
come up with sensible policies policies

594
00:35:11,950 --> 00:35:08,120
to wean ourselves from our dependence on

595
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:11,960
fossil fuels and one of the arguments is

596
00:35:15,340 --> 00:35:13,610
that we shouldn't be dependent on oil

597
00:35:18,190 --> 00:35:15,350
from the Middle East I mean is this a

598
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:18,200
national security issue and actually we

599
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:20,810
can't do that now is that worth the

600
00:35:28,210 --> 00:35:22,970
investment there's something we can

601
00:35:32,850 --> 00:35:28,220
debate about as I showed my presentation

602
00:35:35,830 --> 00:35:32,860
this morning there is evidence that co2

603
00:35:37,970 --> 00:35:35,840
was as high a thousand years ago as it

604
00:35:41,690 --> 00:35:37,980
was today no

605
00:35:42,470 --> 00:35:41,700
no you and I are you sitting there at my

606
00:35:44,060 --> 00:35:42,480
presentation

607
00:35:45,980 --> 00:35:44,070
yes where you were sitting there at my

608
00:35:50,690 --> 00:35:45,990
presentation this morning I didn't

609
00:35:53,720 --> 00:35:50,700
recognize your figures those aren't my

610
00:35:57,260 --> 00:35:53,730
facts I did it that is not my research

611
00:35:59,750 --> 00:35:57,270
that is announces to me that is

612
00:36:01,070 --> 00:35:59,760
peer-reviewed research by dr. Beck oh

613
00:36:05,570 --> 00:36:01,080
yeah I know him

614
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:05,580
yes he makes it up have you made your

615
00:36:09,830 --> 00:36:07,290
statement you Nate needs some more time

616
00:36:10,250 --> 00:36:09,840
- that's right Henry would you like to

617
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:10,260
come in

618
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:12,810
well I I fully agree we should we now

619
00:36:22,130 --> 00:36:16,410
sell from having to use fossil fuels

620
00:36:27,710 --> 00:36:22,140
especially oil but I believe that we

621
00:36:30,380 --> 00:36:27,720
shouldn't use bad wrong reasons for

622
00:36:33,290 --> 00:36:30,390
saying that that's what we should do

623
00:36:36,050 --> 00:36:33,300
because sooner or later that will

624
00:36:39,230 --> 00:36:36,060
backfire on us one of the things that

625
00:36:43,099 --> 00:36:39,240
hasn't been mentioned is that over the

626
00:36:46,609 --> 00:36:43,109
history of the earth global temperature

627
00:36:50,690 --> 00:36:46,619
has buried over a range of 15 degrees

628
00:36:53,890 --> 00:36:50,700
centigrade in the last million years it

629
00:36:57,890 --> 00:36:53,900
has varied over a range of six degrees

630
00:37:03,980 --> 00:36:57,900
centigrade we are now just coming out of

631
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:03,990
one of the rare short periods of cold so

632
00:37:10,370 --> 00:37:06,210
there's no question that things are

633
00:37:14,780 --> 00:37:10,380
warming up for reasons that are quite

634
00:37:18,620 --> 00:37:14,790
separate from co2 and reasons moreover

635
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:18,630
which we don't understand there is no

636
00:37:27,410 --> 00:37:22,890
agreed reason for those 15 degree and

637
00:37:31,070 --> 00:37:27,420
six degree ranges so there is no way in

638
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:31,080
which we can know from data in the last

639
00:37:36,350 --> 00:37:32,130
hundred

640
00:37:39,230 --> 00:37:36,360
years that the rate of warming is

641
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:39,240
greater than it was at one of the

642
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:42,930
earlier periods of warming okay next

643
00:37:52,810 --> 00:37:46,970
question thanks for having this great

644
00:37:57,010 --> 00:37:52,820
debate my name is sky Nelson and I

645
00:37:59,240 --> 00:37:57,020
appreciate what's being said and I'm

646
00:38:01,880 --> 00:37:59,250
sort of emotionally charged I guess as

647
00:38:04,250 --> 00:38:01,890
many of us are on this issue my my

648
00:38:06,650 --> 00:38:04,260
question is I guess to Henry and to

649
00:38:12,620 --> 00:38:06,660
David specifically although anyone can

650
00:38:14,330 --> 00:38:12,630
answer it sounds like we do not whether

651
00:38:16,900 --> 00:38:14,340
or not wherever the evidence is I mean I

652
00:38:20,660 --> 00:38:16,910
I know where the evidence is but

653
00:38:22,430 --> 00:38:20,670
regardless of that we know that there's

654
00:38:26,410 --> 00:38:22,440
a need to act for two reasons one

655
00:38:29,420 --> 00:38:26,420
because the consequences are so dire if

656
00:38:32,810 --> 00:38:29,430
the current models that I understand are

657
00:38:33,830 --> 00:38:32,820
correct of climate change so expensive I

658
00:38:35,690 --> 00:38:33,840
should say if you just want to put in

659
00:38:37,660 --> 00:38:35,700
those terms much more expensive to wait

660
00:38:40,370 --> 00:38:37,670
and see and have to adapt quickly to

661
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:40,380
moving our cities dealing with forests

662
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:42,930
dying and various other effects it would

663
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:44,130
happen from global climate change much

664
00:38:47,990 --> 00:38:46,170
more expensive to wait and see then to

665
00:38:50,510 --> 00:38:48,000
do it than to do be a little proactive

666
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:50,520
about it and we don't need evidence

667
00:38:53,810 --> 00:38:52,170
the second point would be the question

668
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:53,820
would be we don't need evidence to know

669
00:39:00,620 --> 00:38:56,370
that a change needs to be made if if I

670
00:39:02,630 --> 00:39:00,630
am eating too much of high-fat foods for

671
00:39:04,850 --> 00:39:02,640
instance I know that a system like my

672
00:39:06,530 --> 00:39:04,860
body needs to be in balance we know that

673
00:39:08,300 --> 00:39:06,540
it we know that about the planet as well

674
00:39:13,670 --> 00:39:08,310
needs to be in balance so how is it

675
00:39:14,570 --> 00:39:13,680
possible that we can justify the amount

676
00:39:17,990 --> 00:39:14,580
of carbon we're putting in the

677
00:39:21,140 --> 00:39:18,000
atmosphere and not take action to

678
00:39:23,630 --> 00:39:21,150
mitigate that and to limit it even if we

679
00:39:27,470 --> 00:39:23,640
don't agree on the evidence

680
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:27,480
I would justify the amount of carbon in

681
00:39:37,970 --> 00:39:31,170
the atmosphere justify not taking action

682
00:39:42,530 --> 00:39:37,980
if we speak what are the problems of of

683
00:39:45,650 --> 00:39:42,540
modern life is that lots of things are

684
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:45,660
being done that you could not justify on

685
00:39:53,690 --> 00:39:50,130
a rational basis but we are living in a

686
00:39:56,060 --> 00:39:53,700
very complex sort of society where just

687
00:39:59,150 --> 00:39:56,070
because you can see that something would

688
00:40:04,850 --> 00:39:59,160
be reasonable to do doesn't mean that it

689
00:40:08,570 --> 00:40:04,860
will get done it's still a duty to argue

690
00:40:10,850 --> 00:40:08,580
and to make arguments and talk to people

691
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:10,860
that we should do what is reasonable

692
00:40:16,250 --> 00:40:13,490
even though we are not always successful

693
00:40:19,100 --> 00:40:16,260
that's our obligation it's a moral

694
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:19,110
obligation on the part of scientists who

695
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:21,570
understand climate change and also if

696
00:40:29,810 --> 00:40:26,370
you agree you have a moral obligation to

697
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:29,820
try to act on this well one thing I'd

698
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:31,650
like to point out is the ice core

699
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:34,290
samples but I showed the hundred and

700
00:40:40,370 --> 00:40:37,530
sixteen thousand years cycles where

701
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:40,380
scientists say carbon dioxide has never

702
00:40:44,900 --> 00:40:42,930
been above 300 parts per million now

703
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:44,910
showed you this morning those are mean

704
00:40:51,650 --> 00:40:49,170
values of 200 to 1000 years mean values

705
00:40:53,990 --> 00:40:51,660
they take in five global warming cycles

706
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:54,000
where you have ups and downs over a

707
00:40:58,400 --> 00:40:55,410
thousand years

708
00:41:00,740 --> 00:40:58,410
if you mean any data you're gonna

709
00:41:02,990 --> 00:41:00,750
eliminate all the spikes in my data and

710
00:41:05,810 --> 00:41:03,000
they're saying it was 298

711
00:41:07,460 --> 00:41:05,820
parts per million the mean data and they

712
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:07,470
say it's never been higher than that

713
00:41:14,030 --> 00:41:10,770
anyone with any knowledge at all those

714
00:41:14,730 --> 00:41:14,040
it has to be higher than 298 if you were

715
00:41:19,380 --> 00:41:14,740
meaning

716
00:41:22,650 --> 00:41:19,390
over a thousand years we know we overed

717
00:41:25,950 --> 00:41:22,660
over on these cycles we approach higher

718
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:25,960
much higher levels of co2 so why should

719
00:41:31,290 --> 00:41:28,810
we act on looking at one carbon dioxide

720
00:41:33,270 --> 00:41:31,300
cycle that's what we're looking at one

721
00:41:36,720 --> 00:41:33,280
carbon dioxide cycle during the past

722
00:41:39,990 --> 00:41:36,730
hundred years and we want to take action

723
00:41:42,839 --> 00:41:40,000
that will economically hurt the whole

724
00:41:46,910 --> 00:41:42,849
world we don't have to do that

725
00:41:51,060 --> 00:41:46,920
carbon dioxide is a very good gas

726
00:41:53,940 --> 00:41:51,070
through photosynthesis plants take in

727
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:53,950
carbon dioxide and produce oxygen this

728
00:41:59,250 --> 00:41:55,930
is a natural cycle that has been set up

729
00:42:01,710 --> 00:41:59,260
by God by the creator of the world and

730
00:42:05,670 --> 00:42:01,720
the universe and we wanna tinker with it

731
00:42:09,410 --> 00:42:05,680
and I don't care what you guys say read

732
00:42:12,030 --> 00:42:09,420
your Bible I can I can my wife and I

733
00:42:13,980 --> 00:42:12,040
were in Holland in January

734
00:42:25,650 --> 00:42:13,990
my wife is Dutch and we go there

735
00:42:25,660 --> 00:43:09,829
[Music]

736
00:43:15,470 --> 00:43:14,010
and it is not visible to you cycles they

737
00:43:18,870 --> 00:43:15,480
are not there

738
00:43:20,670 --> 00:43:18,880
what are you comparing the 10,000 year

739
00:43:23,329 --> 00:43:20,680
cycles to do you have an instrument to

740
00:43:25,859 --> 00:43:23,339
compare that to how can you verify it

741
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:25,869
the samples from the centre of

742
00:43:30,240 --> 00:43:28,570
Antarctica are an average when you

743
00:43:32,450 --> 00:43:30,250
measure co2 in air bubbles they are an

744
00:43:37,170 --> 00:43:32,460
average of several hundred years perhaps

745
00:43:41,070 --> 00:43:37,180
500 years and but you talk about cycles

746
00:43:42,839 --> 00:43:41,080
that are spikes that must be present

747
00:43:45,990 --> 00:43:42,849
there but they are not present in the

748
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:46,000
samples you it's an hypothesis of yours

749
00:43:56,250 --> 00:43:49,570
you say they must be there well it's not

750
00:44:00,000 --> 00:43:56,260
in the data that's because it takes it

751
00:44:02,220 --> 00:44:00,010
takes such a long take 7,000 years for

752
00:44:04,380 --> 00:44:02,230
it to the bubbles to become locked into

753
00:44:07,500 --> 00:44:04,390
me in the voice now you are taking

754
00:44:11,099 --> 00:44:07,510
readings in the face but receive great a

755
00:44:12,839 --> 00:44:11,109
snowfall quicker I know that but you

756
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:12,849
don't have them but you don't have the

757
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:15,010
instrument data to compare that to from

758
00:44:25,859 --> 00:44:23,970
at least tonight we might resolve it

759
00:44:28,050 --> 00:44:25,869
sometime a nothing next question

760
00:44:31,980 --> 00:44:28,060
well hopefully this question is relevant

761
00:44:34,490 --> 00:44:31,990
I hope so charge on Kinnaman University

762
00:44:39,720 --> 00:44:34,500
of Colorado series former NOAA

763
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:39,730
I tried to think of how to put this as a

764
00:44:44,790 --> 00:44:41,410
question so that it's not entirely a

765
00:44:49,020 --> 00:44:44,800
comment and so the question is what is

766
00:44:52,260 --> 00:44:49,030
the proper use of historical analysis

767
00:44:54,810 --> 00:44:52,270
and it's a loaded question so in Roger

768
00:44:59,520 --> 00:44:54,820
pill key style I'll reveal my bias which

769
00:45:02,730 --> 00:44:59,530
we all have in particular I think that

770
00:45:04,980 --> 00:45:02,740
historical analysis is properly used to

771
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:04,990
determine causes in a system we detect

772
00:45:10,390 --> 00:45:08,210
patterns we investigate those patterns

773
00:45:13,390 --> 00:45:10,400
and we try to find out what the system

774
00:45:16,150 --> 00:45:13,400
is doing what historical analysis is not

775
00:45:17,500 --> 00:45:16,160
good for his prediction if it were Dave

776
00:45:19,540 --> 00:45:17,510
Lee would be a very rich man

777
00:45:21,940 --> 00:45:19,550
today having invested wisely in the

778
00:45:26,460 --> 00:45:21,950
stock market based on his historical

779
00:45:29,770 --> 00:45:26,470
analysis of the cycles also in medicine

780
00:45:31,299 --> 00:45:29,780
simply because I tend to get sick once a

781
00:45:33,130 --> 00:45:31,309
year doesn't mean I don't go to the

782
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:33,140
doctor this year to find out why I'm

783
00:45:38,410 --> 00:45:34,970
sick or what the diagnosis and prognosis

784
00:45:40,859 --> 00:45:38,420
might be furthermore something that's

785
00:45:44,319 --> 00:45:40,869
not going to be discussed here is

786
00:45:46,569 --> 00:45:44,329
ecology we are currently in one of the

787
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:46,579
greatest extinction events on the planet

788
00:45:53,470 --> 00:45:49,130
ever recorded probably equal to the

789
00:45:55,299 --> 00:45:53,480
greatest under this logic of historical

790
00:45:57,180 --> 00:45:55,309
analysis we should ignore it because it

791
00:46:00,400 --> 00:45:57,190
happened before

792
00:46:02,589 --> 00:46:00,410
so that's that's my basic question and

793
00:46:05,940 --> 00:46:02,599
as far as David's last comment I believe

794
00:46:10,870 --> 00:46:05,950
God gave us brains so that we use them

795
00:46:13,180 --> 00:46:10,880
well we should learn from history and

796
00:46:17,370 --> 00:46:13,190
one of the things we learn from history

797
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:17,380
is that competent scientists disagree

798
00:46:25,240 --> 00:46:21,530
for certain periods of time on important

799
00:46:29,829 --> 00:46:25,250
issues and that the mainstream consensus

800
00:46:34,569 --> 00:46:29,839
has often turned out to be wrong I fully

801
00:46:37,720 --> 00:46:34,579
agree with Peter tons that it is a moral

802
00:46:43,740 --> 00:46:37,730
obligation for scientists to tell the

803
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:43,750
truth as they see it the trouble is that

804
00:46:51,130 --> 00:46:46,970
equally qualified scientists don't

805
00:47:09,760 --> 00:46:51,140
always see the truth in the same way if

806
00:47:14,589 --> 00:47:09,770
you go to the website www.cpsc.gov Esser

807
00:47:18,339 --> 00:47:14,599
emeritus of the University of Virginia

808
00:47:21,940 --> 00:47:18,349
professor emeritus of from George Mason

809
00:47:25,589 --> 00:47:21,950
University who held highly responsible

810
00:47:30,489 --> 00:47:25,599
positions in a number of institutions

811
00:47:33,489 --> 00:47:30,499
both in research and in policy one of

812
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:33,499
the things that is wrong with debates

813
00:47:41,620 --> 00:47:37,130
about things like global warming is that

814
00:47:45,309 --> 00:47:41,630
they become politicized and in the

815
00:47:49,779 --> 00:47:45,319
global warming debate what as in many

816
00:47:51,549 --> 00:47:49,789
others it is common practice to say that

817
00:47:56,999 --> 00:47:51,559
those who disagree with the mainstream

818
00:48:01,329 --> 00:47:57,009
view right-wing political conservatives

819
00:48:07,059 --> 00:48:01,339
that is not only irrelevant it's also

820
00:48:11,380 --> 00:48:07,069
wrong because I worked for Obama in 2008

821
00:48:15,729 --> 00:48:11,390
I'm gonna work for him again in 2012 and

822
00:48:19,089 --> 00:48:15,739
I happen to agree with Fred singer who

823
00:48:21,489 --> 00:48:19,099
is a right-wing conservative but we

824
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:21,499
agree with one another on the basis of

825
00:48:28,989 --> 00:48:25,729
evidence not of politics I agree that we

826
00:48:31,989 --> 00:48:28,999
should be on best evidence I know singer

827
00:48:33,670 --> 00:48:31,999
actually quite well I'm sure and it's

828
00:48:37,299 --> 00:48:33,680
also an interesting book he was

829
00:48:41,890 --> 00:48:37,309
described in a book by Naomi Oreskes oh

830
00:48:43,870 --> 00:48:41,900
r es que es the title is merchants of

831
00:48:46,779 --> 00:48:43,880
doubt' and singing is one of the main

832
00:48:49,359 --> 00:48:46,789
characters being described Oreskes is

833
00:48:52,049 --> 00:48:49,369
historian of science as he points out a

834
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:52,059
singing was wrong on the issue of

835
00:48:58,900 --> 00:48:55,249
whether smoking is bad for your health

836
00:49:00,819 --> 00:48:58,910
he was also wrong with the ozone hole he

837
00:49:04,870 --> 00:49:00,829
was also wrong about the acidification

838
00:49:07,479 --> 00:49:04,880
of lakes acid rain and he has quite a

839
00:49:11,229 --> 00:49:07,489
track record actually you see this is

840
00:49:13,479 --> 00:49:11,239
another type of argument which is

841
00:49:14,870 --> 00:49:13,489
irrelevant and wrong and I could

842
00:49:18,690 --> 00:49:14,880
probably

843
00:49:21,900 --> 00:49:18,700
wait a minute the fact that a person can

844
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:21,910
be wrong on three issues doesn't mean

845
00:49:26,220 --> 00:49:24,130
they're wrong on the fourth there are a

846
00:49:28,530 --> 00:49:26,230
number of issues that I've been wrong

847
00:49:30,240 --> 00:49:28,540
about and there a number that I've been

848
00:49:33,630 --> 00:49:30,250
right learned from history

849
00:49:36,390 --> 00:49:33,640
actually okay next question for the

850
00:49:39,240 --> 00:49:36,400
audience thank you thank you very much

851
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:39,250
for the very insightful conversation in

852
00:49:44,430 --> 00:49:41,770
its very education thank you my name is

853
00:49:47,250 --> 00:49:44,440
Ross Ross Locklear I am from Roxbury

854
00:49:54,210 --> 00:49:47,260
Colorado this I would like to hear from

855
00:49:57,690 --> 00:49:54,220
every panelist I guess your personal and

856
00:50:00,120 --> 00:49:57,700
professional truthful recommendation to

857
00:50:03,210 --> 00:50:00,130
that the world leaders

858
00:50:06,290 --> 00:50:03,220
what are your realistic the most

859
00:50:11,420 --> 00:50:06,300
realistic hard-driven

860
00:50:15,349 --> 00:50:11,430
strategies that you will recommend to

861
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:15,359
the world leaders how do we move forward

862
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:19,090
with this global warming thank you

863
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:22,210
[Music]

864
00:50:27,839 --> 00:50:25,330
I wish I could give you insightful

865
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:27,849
answer I think that the first step is

866
00:50:34,290 --> 00:50:31,570
acknowledgement I mean we have to have a

867
00:50:37,109 --> 00:50:34,300
global consensus that this is an issue

868
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:37,119
of importance without that we can't get

869
00:50:52,730 --> 00:50:49,549
but the exact clearly we have to reduce

870
00:50:54,510 --> 00:50:52,740
fossil fuel we there's nobody is

871
00:51:10,140 --> 00:50:54,520
sensible as arguing that we should

872
00:51:12,839 --> 00:51:10,150
immediately stop because there are

873
00:51:15,799 --> 00:51:12,849
examples actually afford states have

874
00:51:20,450 --> 00:51:15,809
been successful in doing this from

875
00:51:25,109 --> 00:51:20,460
Sweden after the oil sharks in the 1970s

876
00:51:27,390 --> 00:51:25,119
decided for economic reasons not to

877
00:51:30,450 --> 00:51:27,400
lower the dependence on imported energy

878
00:51:34,230 --> 00:51:30,460
and so they went on an energy efficiency

879
00:51:38,010 --> 00:51:34,240
program and also for electricity went

880
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:38,020
nuclear and they managed with technology

881
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:41,890
in the 1970s to decrease their per

882
00:51:54,569 --> 00:51:46,410
capita co2 emissions by a factor of two

883
00:51:57,809 --> 00:51:54,579
we know this can be done well I don't

884
00:52:01,049 --> 00:51:57,819
think it's our role we're not competent

885
00:52:04,319 --> 00:52:01,059
to tell world political leaders what to

886
00:52:08,010 --> 00:52:04,329
do that's why we happen to be scientists

887
00:52:11,220 --> 00:52:08,020
or historians and not politicians what

888
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:11,230
we should do is to make plain to them

889
00:52:18,870 --> 00:52:13,930
what the division and the range of

890
00:52:21,329 --> 00:52:18,880
opinions is on any given matter next

891
00:52:23,460 --> 00:52:21,339
question from the audience my my name is

892
00:52:25,770 --> 00:52:23,470
noisy honey my question has to do with

893
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:25,780
remote viewing I don't know if any of

894
00:52:28,550 --> 00:52:26,010
the

895
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:28,560
analysts believe in remote viewing or

896
00:52:33,410 --> 00:52:31,650
consider it to be a valid method of

897
00:52:36,350 --> 00:52:33,420
obtaining information but I'll still ask

898
00:52:38,770 --> 00:52:36,360
my question do you know if any serious

899
00:52:42,620 --> 00:52:38,780
effort has been made to engage any

900
00:52:51,260 --> 00:52:42,630
expert and credible remote viewers to

901
00:53:02,690 --> 00:52:51,270
help us find out information about can

902
00:53:04,850 --> 00:53:02,700
you explain to me remote viewing is a

903
00:53:06,850 --> 00:53:04,860
situation where someone let's say in the

904
00:53:09,950 --> 00:53:06,860
laboratory and some other person is out

905
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:09,960
in the community and the person in the

906
00:53:14,900 --> 00:53:12,930
laboratory remotely determines what the

907
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:14,910
other person is looking at there are

908
00:53:20,630 --> 00:53:16,890
lots of variations of that but that's

909
00:53:33,410 --> 00:53:20,640
what's called remote viewing and many

910
00:53:36,950 --> 00:53:33,420
people some in this describe an

911
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:36,960
experiment who had done remote viewing

912
00:53:41,990 --> 00:53:39,170
for the United States military

913
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:42,000
Department of Defense and so forth we're

914
00:53:45,650 --> 00:53:44,130
engaged to do remote viewing to

915
00:53:47,240 --> 00:53:45,660
determine or at least provide

916
00:53:50,060 --> 00:53:47,250
information of what might be happening

917
00:53:57,380 --> 00:53:50,070
on the planet Mars I was trying to give

918
00:53:59,990 --> 00:53:57,390
a second you should ask for names of

919
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:00,000
people who might know about that you

920
00:54:07,370 --> 00:54:04,530
should ask Courtney Browns next question

921
00:54:10,670 --> 00:54:07,380
from the audience hi my name is Emery

922
00:54:13,190 --> 00:54:10,680
I'm from New York I'm gonna put forward

923
00:54:15,650 --> 00:54:13,200
a metaphor and I'm interested in if it

924
00:54:18,770 --> 00:54:15,660
draws any comments from you the metaphor

925
00:54:21,410 --> 00:54:18,780
would be civilizations have seemed to

926
00:54:23,420 --> 00:54:21,420
have a natural rise and fall and with

927
00:54:27,530 --> 00:54:23,430
that comes the development of technology

928
00:54:30,380 --> 00:54:27,540
and so we're in a civilization and it

929
00:54:32,510 --> 00:54:30,390
has risen and with that has come the

930
00:54:35,990 --> 00:54:32,520
rise of Technology and that rise of

931
00:54:38,780 --> 00:54:36,000
technology has been let's say exceeding

932
00:54:41,150 --> 00:54:38,790
the all the other cycles by a huge

933
00:54:45,140 --> 00:54:41,160
amount we now have the ability to

934
00:54:47,540 --> 00:54:45,150
explore the the universe and we have the

935
00:54:50,450 --> 00:54:47,550
Internet

936
00:54:52,100 --> 00:54:50,460
I feel like this metaphor might be

937
00:54:56,020 --> 00:54:52,110
applicable to the one we're currently at

938
00:55:02,990 --> 00:54:56,030
where we have natural rise and fall of

939
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:03,000
climate change and of co2 so do you have

940
00:55:08,300 --> 00:55:05,850
any comment on that I'd like to comment

941
00:55:10,730 --> 00:55:08,310
on that you're talking about new

942
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:10,740
technology and that was it exactly what

943
00:55:16,030 --> 00:55:12,330
I was showing in my presentation this

944
00:55:19,940 --> 00:55:16,040
morning was new technology for

945
00:55:23,930 --> 00:55:19,950
forecasting climate changes by looking

946
00:55:27,650 --> 00:55:23,940
at the gravitational field of the Earth

947
00:55:31,720 --> 00:55:27,660
and Moon and also you can use the the

948
00:55:34,490 --> 00:55:31,730
sunspot Monda minimums or increases

949
00:55:36,470 --> 00:55:34,500
which have all been proven to have

950
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:36,480
effects on the world's temperatures and

951
00:55:41,780 --> 00:55:39,450
my technology is brand new there are

952
00:55:44,450 --> 00:55:41,790
some other scientists in the world using

953
00:55:46,910 --> 00:55:44,460
the same type of technology ism IM the

954
00:55:49,190 --> 00:55:46,920
government's are not because it has not

955
00:55:51,620 --> 00:55:49,200
been funded by grants anywhere so the

956
00:55:55,010 --> 00:55:51,630
government's are unaware of this

957
00:55:58,040 --> 00:55:55,020
technology this is new technology and

958
00:56:01,370 --> 00:55:58,050
yes this should be applied to our

959
00:56:03,020 --> 00:56:01,380
problems in the future if you look at

960
00:56:05,150 --> 00:56:03,030
new technology this is what everything

961
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:05,160
is about new technology new technology

962
00:56:10,820 --> 00:56:09,090
for energy and on my presentation I'm

963
00:56:13,970 --> 00:56:10,830
showing we're all ready to go into a

964
00:56:18,620 --> 00:56:13,980
very deep global cooling so why should

965
00:56:23,090 --> 00:56:18,630
we ruin will in the world's economy by

966
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:23,100
going on a chase with technology that

967
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:25,410
will do not even have or a very good

968
00:56:30,590 --> 00:56:28,410
technology in 50 75 years we're going to

969
00:56:33,490 --> 00:56:30,600
have great technology for it for a

970
00:56:35,010 --> 00:56:33,500
different energy we can wait for that

971
00:56:39,370 --> 00:56:35,020
we have plenty of fossil fuel energy

972
00:56:41,980 --> 00:56:39,380
fossil fuel is not hurting the world it

973
00:56:44,950 --> 00:56:41,990
is not it is very good to plant life we

974
00:56:47,290 --> 00:56:44,960
need vegetation we have seven billion

975
00:56:49,349 --> 00:56:47,300
people here on earth and it's been

976
00:56:52,450 --> 00:56:49,359
proven that during the past ten years

977
00:56:53,580 --> 00:56:52,460
vegetation is growing faster and we have

978
00:56:57,130 --> 00:56:53,590
more people to feed

979
00:57:00,700 --> 00:56:57,140
any other comments well the risk of

980
00:57:02,230 --> 00:57:00,710
climate change is that it might become

981
00:57:04,300 --> 00:57:02,240
more difficult to feed the world's

982
00:57:07,060 --> 00:57:04,310
people because it will have effects on

983
00:57:10,410 --> 00:57:07,070
the hydrologic cycle animal plants also

984
00:57:16,420 --> 00:57:10,420
you know we are dominating the earth now

985
00:57:19,810 --> 00:57:16,430
I would say oh I want to say something

986
00:57:22,570 --> 00:57:19,820
about we can't afford to decrease

987
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:22,580
emissions I was thinking about earlier

988
00:57:29,730 --> 00:57:26,690
in I mentioned Sweden as an example of a

989
00:57:33,550 --> 00:57:29,740
country that cut its emissions in half

990
00:57:35,770 --> 00:57:33,560
the per capita GDP of Sweden was

991
00:57:37,780 --> 00:57:35,780
slightly less than the u.s. when they

992
00:57:39,460 --> 00:57:37,790
started this effort and when they

993
00:57:42,070 --> 00:57:39,470
finished in twenty years later it was

994
00:57:45,370 --> 00:57:42,080
still slightly less the United States a

995
00:57:49,510 --> 00:57:45,380
drop in per capita GDP relative the u.s.

996
00:57:52,150 --> 00:57:49,520
simply did was not there so don't say

997
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:52,160
that we can't afford it it's just how

998
00:57:57,339 --> 00:57:55,490
you do it we know how to do it well we

999
00:58:01,829 --> 00:57:57,349
can't do it by giving grants to

1000
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:01,839
companies for solar energy that is not

1001
00:58:07,329 --> 00:58:04,010
economically feasible and that's what

1002
00:58:09,940 --> 00:58:07,339
we're doing we're given grants to to

1003
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:09,950
purchase the equipment for people so

1004
00:58:18,579 --> 00:58:14,210
they don't have to do this can you

1005
00:58:23,290 --> 00:58:18,589
imagine how Congress would react to the

1006
00:58:25,810 --> 00:58:23,300
statement Sweden did it oh yeah I can

1007
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:25,820
very well imagine that and Congress is

1008
00:58:30,589 --> 00:58:28,730
wrong yeah okay next question for the

1009
00:58:32,539 --> 00:58:30,599
audience

1010
00:58:35,779 --> 00:58:32,549
new technology I think is an important

1011
00:58:37,519 --> 00:58:35,789
issue in large the best predictor for

1012
00:58:39,469 --> 00:58:37,529
year-to-year climate variability which

1013
00:58:41,660 --> 00:58:39,479
has real economic impacts is the status

1014
00:58:44,359 --> 00:58:41,670
of n so david has argued that he can

1015
00:58:51,289 --> 00:58:44,369
predict it years in advance and with new

1016
00:58:54,289 --> 00:58:51,299
technology I suggest all of you and you

1017
00:58:57,380 --> 00:58:54,299
will be too Osborn he one that would

1018
00:58:59,509 --> 00:58:57,390
correctly forecast the end so in 2009 no

1019
00:59:01,999 --> 00:58:59,519
one else forecasted I had a forecast two

1020
00:59:05,299 --> 00:59:02,009
years in advance I had this one forecast

1021
00:59:08,660 --> 00:59:05,309
right on Manolos also the Hurricane

1022
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:08,670
Center was the Colorado State knocked

1023
00:59:12,739 --> 00:59:10,890
down the hurricane forecast of this year

1024
00:59:16,279 --> 00:59:12,749
cuz they expected to nen so this summer

1025
00:59:18,019 --> 00:59:16,289
I told dr. gray uh uh it's not coming

1026
00:59:20,749 --> 00:59:18,029
until Christmas now they're revising

1027
00:59:22,729 --> 00:59:20,759
their forecast again and so towards

1028
00:59:24,890 --> 00:59:22,739
Christmas and a very bad hurricane

1029
00:59:29,229 --> 00:59:24,900
season so yes I do have some great

1030
00:59:35,709 --> 00:59:31,910
it's more like Carmen's my name is Lou

1031
00:59:39,370 --> 00:59:35,719
Marin kovitch for thirty years I was a

1032
00:59:41,359 --> 00:59:39,380
paleontologist who specialized in the

1033
00:59:44,140 --> 00:59:41,369
environmental history of the Arctic

1034
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:44,150
Ocean during the past 65 million years

1035
00:59:50,029 --> 00:59:48,210
and I've documented in my own research

1036
00:59:52,479 --> 00:59:50,039
published in really good journalists

1037
00:59:55,130 --> 00:59:52,489
like nature and science and so forth

1038
00:59:57,499 --> 00:59:55,140
what the what the different climate were

1039
01:00:00,430 --> 00:59:57,509
warming's were or Cooling's over the

1040
01:00:02,530 --> 01:00:00,440
past 65 million years

1041
01:00:05,110 --> 01:00:02,540
so I have several comments so I'll make

1042
01:00:07,390 --> 01:00:05,120
them quick it's been said that there's a

1043
01:00:10,330 --> 01:00:07,400
95 percent or whatever confidence that

1044
01:00:11,950 --> 01:00:10,340
people affect the climate it's actually

1045
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:11,960
not something that's subject to

1046
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:14,450
probability either Schrodinger's cats

1047
01:00:17,100 --> 01:00:15,330
dead or alive

1048
01:00:21,070 --> 01:00:17,110
[Music]

1049
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:21,080
number two somebody said that there

1050
01:00:27,610 --> 01:00:24,050
hasn't been this degree of warmth for

1051
01:00:29,620 --> 01:00:27,620
the past 5,000 years but there was an

1052
01:00:34,690 --> 01:00:29,630
episode called the Medieval Warm Period

1053
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:34,700
from the 5th to the 10th centuries when

1054
01:00:39,100 --> 01:00:36,890
the climate was several degrees warmer

1055
01:00:42,210 --> 01:00:39,110
in the in the northern hemisphere where

1056
01:00:44,740 --> 01:00:42,220
it's this best documented and up to

1057
01:00:47,710 --> 01:00:44,750
75,000 Vikings were living on Greenland

1058
01:00:51,610 --> 01:00:47,720
which is just rocks and snow today so we

1059
01:00:53,620 --> 01:00:51,620
have 25 human generations that didn't

1060
01:00:57,970 --> 01:00:53,630
know they were living that there was

1061
01:01:01,090 --> 01:00:57,980
never going to get that warm again it's

1062
01:01:03,730 --> 01:01:01,100
not clear to me over the long term half

1063
01:01:05,890 --> 01:01:03,740
a billion years that co2 is even a

1064
01:01:08,770 --> 01:01:05,900
greenhouse gas for the following reasons

1065
01:01:11,740 --> 01:01:08,780
she'll fit geochemists have published a

1066
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:11,750
myriad of papers documenting the climate

1067
01:01:21,970 --> 01:01:17,530
and co2 over the past half billion years

1068
01:01:25,090 --> 01:01:21,980
they use carbon isotopes from corals and

1069
01:01:29,170 --> 01:01:25,100
sea shells and other sea creatures as a

1070
01:01:34,230 --> 01:01:29,180
proxy for co2 and the use oxygen

1071
01:01:39,370 --> 01:01:34,240
isotopes oxygen 1864 a temperature proxy

1072
01:01:42,100 --> 01:01:39,380
so you can see big leaps in temperature

1073
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:42,110
high or low and the big sweeping changes

1074
01:01:47,650 --> 01:01:46,010
in co2 and they don't correlate at least

1075
01:01:50,710 --> 01:01:47,660
for the last half billion years they

1076
01:01:53,650 --> 01:01:50,720
don't sometimes co2 is high during an

1077
01:01:56,740 --> 01:01:53,660
ice age say 200 million years ago

1078
01:01:59,089 --> 01:01:56,750
sometimes co2 is high and it's warm but

1079
01:02:02,329 --> 01:01:59,099
there's no consistent correlation at all

1080
01:02:06,739 --> 01:02:02,339
so it's not clear that over time a lot

1081
01:02:09,170 --> 01:02:06,749
of time co2 is even a greenhouse gas co2

1082
01:02:10,130 --> 01:02:09,180
values have been two to three times what

1083
01:02:12,620 --> 01:02:10,140
they are today

1084
01:02:17,299 --> 01:02:12,630
in the past including during cool

1085
01:02:19,279 --> 01:02:17,309
episodes around the world in the Vostok

1086
01:02:21,469 --> 01:02:19,289
cores that the Russians took in

1087
01:02:25,459 --> 01:02:21,479
Antarctica that goes back 400 thousand

1088
01:02:27,170 --> 01:02:25,469
years I believe mr. chilly had an

1089
01:02:29,900 --> 01:02:27,180
illustration of the graph he can see

1090
01:02:31,670 --> 01:02:29,910
climate getting warmer and colder warmer

1091
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:31,680
colder ice ages happening and

1092
01:02:36,289 --> 01:02:33,690
interglacials inter inter ice ages

1093
01:02:41,209 --> 01:02:36,299
happening but the temperature always

1094
01:02:44,089 --> 01:02:41,219
goes up first up to 800 years before the

1095
01:02:46,430 --> 01:02:44,099
co2 goes up so indeed they both go up

1096
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:46,440
but first the temperature does in every

1097
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:49,410
single episode of warming spikes for the

1098
01:02:57,769 --> 01:02:55,650
last 400,000 years in Antarctica one end

1099
01:02:59,599 --> 01:02:57,779
the Milankovitch cycles since my last

1100
01:03:02,239 --> 01:02:59,609
name is Marin kovitch I know a lot about

1101
01:03:03,949 --> 01:03:02,249
this the Milankovitch cycles which are

1102
01:03:08,719 --> 01:03:03,959
sediment cycles the sediments deposited

1103
01:03:11,329 --> 01:03:08,729
in the ocean reflect warm and cold warm

1104
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:11,339
and cold woman took cold over time at

1105
01:03:22,230 --> 01:03:13,650
the moment they're kicking into a cold

1106
01:04:08,180 --> 01:03:36,170
[Music]

1107
01:04:14,340 --> 01:04:11,790
reflecting a very local temperature not

1108
01:04:16,260 --> 01:04:14,350
a global what's been done is to put

1109
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:16,270
together the global signal of

1110
01:04:30,810 --> 01:04:21,370
temperature temperature follows the co2

1111
01:04:34,770 --> 01:04:30,820
co2 rises and that was totally debunked

1112
01:04:43,860 --> 01:04:34,780
also yes it was well we're not gonna

1113
01:04:45,170 --> 01:04:43,870
totally debunked very quickly next

1114
01:04:50,130 --> 01:04:45,180
question from the audience

1115
01:04:52,860 --> 01:04:50,140
good evening I'm not an expert on the

1116
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:52,870
subject but seems to me may be

1117
01:04:57,050 --> 01:04:54,970
incorrectly that the burning of fossil

1118
01:05:00,270 --> 01:04:57,060
fuels would release to the atmosphere

1119
01:05:03,030 --> 01:05:00,280
other chemicals decide co2 probably

1120
01:05:05,010 --> 01:05:03,040
unwanted chemicals and even

1121
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:05,020
if this isn't correct there are other

1122
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:08,050
factors like the Peak Oil phenomena

1123
01:05:14,460 --> 01:05:10,690
there was this year of paper published

1124
01:05:17,370 --> 01:05:14,470
in Nature which remember sack the title

1125
01:05:19,140 --> 01:05:17,380
but paraphrasing it basically concluded

1126
01:05:22,380 --> 01:05:19,150
that we are definitely right now in Peak

1127
01:05:25,730 --> 01:05:22,390
Oil considering this considering the

1128
01:05:30,530 --> 01:05:25,740
fact that we are now looking to drill in

1129
01:05:32,940 --> 01:05:30,540
areas where it has sensible ecosystems

1130
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:32,950
and if I had more times I probably could

1131
01:05:39,410 --> 01:05:36,370
come up with several more reasons why we

1132
01:05:42,030 --> 01:05:39,420
should move away from fossil fuels so

1133
01:05:43,770 --> 01:05:42,040
even if fossil fuels the burning of

1134
01:05:47,250 --> 01:05:43,780
fossil fuels has nothing to do with the

1135
01:05:49,410 --> 01:05:47,260
global warming there's probably a large

1136
01:05:51,570 --> 01:05:49,420
list of reasons of why we should move

1137
01:05:52,890 --> 01:05:51,580
away from fossil fuels and I would like

1138
01:05:55,710 --> 01:05:52,900
to hear the comments of the panel on

1139
01:05:57,480 --> 01:05:55,720
this we also have a pretty large list

1140
01:06:01,830 --> 01:05:57,490
why we should be moving away from wind

1141
01:06:04,020 --> 01:06:01,840
power they kill an enormous amount of

1142
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:04,030
birds one thing and they're also putting

1143
01:06:11,070 --> 01:06:07,690
out a low-frequency noise there's a

1144
01:06:14,130 --> 01:06:11,080
study being done up in Maine from sound

1145
01:06:17,310 --> 01:06:14,140
acoustic engineers they were performing

1146
01:06:19,950 --> 01:06:17,320
some work beside a large wind turbine

1147
01:06:21,630 --> 01:06:19,960
and they're in this house for about

1148
01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:21,640
three or four days and they started to

1149
01:06:29,250 --> 01:06:25,330
get sick feeling just horrible they

1150
01:06:30,900 --> 01:06:29,260
couldn't understand why so a few days

1151
01:06:34,410 --> 01:06:30,910
later they had to leave to go to an

1152
01:06:37,980 --> 01:06:34,420
another job and they felt better then

1153
01:06:40,380 --> 01:06:37,990
they came back and within a day after

1154
01:06:42,030 --> 01:06:40,390
getting back to that research point

1155
01:06:44,630 --> 01:06:42,040
where the wind turbine was they started

1156
01:06:47,670 --> 01:06:44,640
to feel very ill again business

1157
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:47,680
confusion and they're writing a paper

1158
01:06:52,200 --> 01:06:49,570
right now they have found out that the

1159
01:06:54,930 --> 01:06:52,210
wind turbines give off a low-frequency

1160
01:06:56,970 --> 01:06:54,940
noise we can't hear it comes into the

1161
01:07:01,320 --> 01:06:56,980
house and what they have is motion

1162
01:07:03,330 --> 01:07:01,330
sickness from a wind turbines now the

1163
01:07:05,880 --> 01:07:03,340
motion sickness it's probably about a

1164
01:07:08,010 --> 01:07:05,890
five mile radius of a wind turbines

1165
01:07:10,530 --> 01:07:08,020
which means you have to put up a huge

1166
01:07:12,900 --> 01:07:10,540
buffer zone but this is what's going to

1167
01:07:13,570 --> 01:07:12,910
happen in the future a very huge buffer

1168
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:13,580
zone for

1169
01:07:19,420 --> 01:07:16,010
wind turbines among that are also

1170
01:07:22,120 --> 01:07:19,430
killing bats and bald eagles and many

1171
01:07:23,650 --> 01:07:22,130
other species that's very interesting

1172
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:23,660
but I'm not proposing to move towards

1173
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:26,450
wind energy but that's an alternative

1174
01:07:36,160 --> 01:07:33,730
something about the birds the early

1175
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:36,170
generation that wind turbines actually

1176
01:07:44,710 --> 01:07:39,850
killed birds because the structure

1177
01:07:47,050 --> 01:07:44,720
invited birds to nest there so one big

1178
01:07:49,780 --> 01:07:47,060
advance was actually to make a smooth

1179
01:07:53,190 --> 01:07:49,790
tower but it didn't give a place for

1180
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:53,200
birds to sit and build a nest that

1181
01:07:58,090 --> 01:07:56,090
decreased the bird kill by an enormous

1182
01:08:00,010 --> 01:07:58,100
factor I don't know what the numbers are

1183
01:08:01,810 --> 01:08:00,020
right now but that was actually some a

1184
01:08:04,090 --> 01:08:01,820
lesson that had to be learned well they

1185
01:08:06,520 --> 01:08:04,100
have an island and main words already

1186
01:08:09,640 --> 01:08:06,530
killed five by bald eagles in the past

1187
01:08:12,940 --> 01:08:09,650
year and if we went out and shot one we

1188
01:08:16,690 --> 01:08:12,950
would be in jail there's something about

1189
01:08:20,680 --> 01:08:16,700
coal yeah so you are in favor of coal it

1190
01:08:23,050 --> 01:08:20,690
seems never mentioned coal

1191
01:08:35,770 --> 01:08:23,060
never mentioned coal we were talking

1192
01:08:39,130 --> 01:08:35,780
about wind turbines I York a couple of

1193
01:08:43,510 --> 01:08:39,140
brief remarks first I wanted to express

1194
01:08:45,940 --> 01:08:43,520
my extreme disappointment at learning

1195
01:08:47,950 --> 01:08:45,950
that dr. Miller had declined to allow

1196
01:08:50,770 --> 01:08:47,960
his talk to be recorded because I

1197
01:08:53,170 --> 01:08:50,780
thought it was a very good presentation

1198
01:08:53,999 --> 01:08:53,180
and certainly deserved to be archived

1199
01:09:03,030 --> 01:08:54,009
and

1200
01:09:06,059 --> 01:09:03,040
actual question but it was rather driven

1201
01:09:09,450 --> 01:09:06,069
out of my head by my shock at hearing

1202
01:09:12,650 --> 01:09:09,460
one of the panelists invoke God as the

1203
01:09:15,780 --> 01:09:12,660
creator of the world for a basis for

1204
01:09:17,789 --> 01:09:15,790
considering that things are okay and we

1205
01:09:19,950 --> 01:09:17,799
shouldn't meddle with them that is a

1206
01:09:22,979 --> 01:09:19,960
perfectly legitimate theological

1207
01:09:29,070 --> 01:09:22,989
position but it is simply fraud to pass

1208
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:29,080
it off as science anybody on the panel

1209
01:09:46,710 --> 01:09:30,810
[Applause]

1210
01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:57,500
[Music]

1211
01:10:03,030 --> 01:10:00,210
yeah I I agree with you if you want to

1212
01:10:05,340 --> 01:10:03,040
if you submit something to journal like

1213
01:10:06,810 --> 01:10:05,350
nature or science and they find out that

1214
01:10:10,200 --> 01:10:06,820
you it's already published somewhere

1215
01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:10,210
they will not accept it next question

1216
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:12,370
this is a question in a bit of a

1217
01:10:18,300 --> 01:10:14,650
suggestion dress two the two scientists

1218
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:18,310
on the left do you think that perhaps we

1219
01:10:24,960 --> 01:10:21,690
made a slight blunder in calling it

1220
01:10:27,360 --> 01:10:24,970
global warming because people think in

1221
01:10:29,370 --> 01:10:27,370
terms of temperature and what I'm

1222
01:10:32,010 --> 01:10:29,380
thinking is that it's the real problem

1223
01:10:34,710 --> 01:10:32,020
is global heating it is a capture of

1224
01:10:36,330 --> 01:10:34,720
heat in the system that then has to be

1225
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:36,340
released to space through various

1226
01:10:41,610 --> 01:10:39,489
different mechanisms and a one or two

1227
01:10:43,350 --> 01:10:41,620
degree increase in temperature doesn't

1228
01:10:45,750 --> 01:10:43,360
excite the public and doesn't compute

1229
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:45,760
very well with politicians but when you

1230
01:10:53,729 --> 01:10:48,370
start talking about what he does that's

1231
01:10:55,950 --> 01:10:53,739
a different story he he puts more energy

1232
01:10:58,830 --> 01:10:55,960
in the atmosphere that's exactly what

1233
01:11:00,270 --> 01:10:58,840
happens more water so there's currently

1234
01:11:02,970 --> 01:11:00,280
more water vapor in the atmosphere than

1235
01:11:06,210 --> 01:11:02,980
there was before as 30 years ago

1236
01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:06,220
that translates to energy and the

1237
01:11:41,010 --> 01:11:08,290
expectation as a result of that is of

1238
01:11:43,560 --> 01:11:41,020
more weather extremes question was a

1239
01:11:46,260 --> 01:11:43,570
semantic one would it have been better

1240
01:11:49,050 --> 01:11:46,270
to call it heating rather than warming

1241
01:11:52,020 --> 01:11:49,060
would that be more effective what I've

1242
01:11:55,770 --> 01:11:52,030
been interested in is that more and more

1243
01:12:00,450 --> 01:11:55,780
frequently the talk is about climate

1244
01:12:02,580 --> 01:12:00,460
change which is non falsifiable instead

1245
01:12:06,540 --> 01:12:02,590
of talking about human-caused global

1246
01:12:09,780 --> 01:12:06,550
warming which is potentially falsifiable

1247
01:12:13,290 --> 01:12:09,790
I certainly agree with Steven Holl from

1248
01:12:15,270 --> 01:12:13,300
Orlando Florida Freeman Dyson who I'm

1249
01:12:18,060 --> 01:12:15,280
sure you all know is great scientist one

1250
01:12:21,780 --> 01:12:18,070
of the criticisms he has had and others

1251
01:12:24,960 --> 01:12:21,790
as well is about climate models the

1252
01:12:26,970 --> 01:12:24,970
computer models which he's criticized

1253
01:12:29,940 --> 01:12:26,980
them is simply not being complete not

1254
01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:29,950
having all the variables available and

1255
01:12:33,780 --> 01:12:31,690
much of the climate research and

1256
01:12:36,390 --> 01:12:33,790
forecasting is based on those computer

1257
01:12:38,700 --> 01:12:36,400
models so I would like to get each of

1258
01:12:42,990 --> 01:12:38,710
you to comment on that I agree with that

1259
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:43,000
I I refrain from a prediction all I'm

1260
01:12:48,240 --> 01:12:45,850
saying is we run a great risk because

1261
01:12:51,600 --> 01:12:48,250
there's a flipside to us not being able

1262
01:12:55,170 --> 01:12:51,610
to make a good prediction there's a very

1263
01:12:57,120 --> 01:12:55,180
large range in the predicted aspects of

1264
01:12:58,680 --> 01:12:57,130
climate change by computer models for

1265
01:13:00,240 --> 01:12:58,690
good reasons because we do not

1266
01:13:02,760 --> 01:13:00,250
understand these feedbacks well enough

1267
01:13:06,150 --> 01:13:02,770
but that's at the same time tells us

1268
01:13:07,770 --> 01:13:06,160
that we're in a risky business because

1269
01:13:09,780 --> 01:13:07,780
none of these parameter is Asians that

1270
01:13:13,060 --> 01:13:09,790
give these more extreme predictions

1271
01:13:18,040 --> 01:13:13,070
r-rahman stably idiotic they seem

1272
01:13:21,340 --> 01:13:18,050
reasonable one thing we must remember is

1273
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:21,350
water vapors 96 percent of the

1274
01:13:28,120 --> 01:13:23,810
greenhouse gases and everyone's ignoring

1275
01:13:29,020 --> 01:13:28,130
water vapor which and also then why are

1276
01:13:33,670 --> 01:13:29,030
we arguing about

1277
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:33,680
only co2 water vapor is 96 percent of

1278
01:13:40,150 --> 01:13:37,610
the greenhouse gas and it also varies as

1279
01:13:43,060 --> 01:13:40,160
we warm we also get warm water vapor in

1280
01:13:46,840 --> 01:13:43,070
the air causing greenhouse gas causing

1281
01:13:49,240 --> 01:13:46,850
trap interfere about warm air that's a

1282
01:13:51,670 --> 01:13:49,250
positive feedback that's right now as

1283
01:13:53,500 --> 01:13:51,680
far as the IPCC models and other models

1284
01:13:56,020 --> 01:13:53,510
they are only as good as the information

1285
01:13:57,820 --> 01:13:56,030
put in imported bottles

1286
01:14:00,670 --> 01:13:57,830
you have to have good information to put

1287
01:14:03,910 --> 01:14:00,680
into the models this is why the IPCC

1288
01:14:05,950 --> 01:14:03,920
forecast back 10 years ago was totally

1289
01:14:07,570 --> 01:14:05,960
wrong and they had to revise it just a

1290
01:14:10,240 --> 01:14:07,580
few years after that actually they've

1291
01:14:13,360 --> 01:14:10,250
realized their forecasts about three

1292
01:14:14,680 --> 01:14:13,370
times already and I'm not revising my

1293
01:14:17,290 --> 01:14:14,690
forecasts at all

1294
01:14:19,320 --> 01:14:17,300
and remember pretend your cycles a

1295
01:14:22,210 --> 01:14:19,330
10-year warm periods we're talking about

1296
01:14:24,340 --> 01:14:22,220
in the 1930s and now but the signature

1297
01:14:26,470 --> 01:14:24,350
on all the global warming cycles we're

1298
01:14:28,990 --> 01:14:26,480
coming at the end of that cycle right

1299
01:14:31,120 --> 01:14:29,000
now and people trying to debunk this but

1300
01:14:34,390 --> 01:14:31,130
we haven't even gotten out of the cycle

1301
01:14:36,700 --> 01:14:34,400
yet to head into this you have to look

1302
01:14:38,650 --> 01:14:36,710
at this and take care of it because

1303
01:14:41,260 --> 01:14:38,660
remember I told you about very sharp

1304
01:14:44,020 --> 01:14:41,270
global cooling coming in very sharp

1305
01:14:47,440 --> 01:14:44,030
which would be extremely dangerous for

1306
01:14:51,310 --> 01:14:47,450
people here on earth where our food

1307
01:14:53,110 --> 01:14:51,320
supplies and if we don't heed warning on

1308
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:53,120
this and I'm not the only one saying is

1309
01:14:55,600 --> 01:14:55,130
there are many scientists throughout the

1310
01:14:58,600 --> 01:14:55,610
world

1311
01:15:01,090 --> 01:14:58,610
starting to step forward on this now and

1312
01:15:04,750 --> 01:15:01,100
we can't get our voices because of the

1313
01:15:07,510 --> 01:15:04,760
media and we need to have people look at

1314
01:15:10,540 --> 01:15:07,520
both sides of the situation and not just

1315
01:15:12,760 --> 01:15:10,550
go to one view we have to look at both

1316
01:15:18,220 --> 01:15:12,770
of them and it's not being done okay

1317
01:15:23,500 --> 01:15:21,370
a few I guess philosophical comments

1318
01:15:26,770 --> 01:15:23,510
here and maybe it'll ultimately lead

1319
01:15:28,720 --> 01:15:26,780
into a question or two but what I find

1320
01:15:30,490 --> 01:15:28,730
interesting here this is the first time

1321
01:15:33,280 --> 01:15:30,500
I've attended one of these kind of one

1322
01:15:36,729 --> 01:15:33,290
of these conferences is that we we have

1323
01:15:38,680 --> 01:15:36,739
within our panel the same kind of

1324
01:15:42,130 --> 01:15:38,690
division and from what I've observed

1325
01:15:45,460 --> 01:15:42,140
here quite frankly acrimony related to

1326
01:15:47,680 --> 01:15:45,470
this issue that I've observed and I have

1327
01:15:50,410 --> 01:15:47,690
to admit I'm not a regular reader of the

1328
01:15:53,470 --> 01:15:50,420
more erudite magazines like nature and

1329
01:15:55,660 --> 01:15:53,480
so forth my my band tends to be more

1330
01:15:58,810 --> 01:15:55,670
engineering related so I read magazines

1331
01:16:00,550 --> 01:15:58,820
like chemical and engineering news which

1332
01:16:03,580 --> 01:16:00,560
is publication of the American Chemical

1333
01:16:08,350 --> 01:16:03,590
Society physics today which of course is

1334
01:16:11,680 --> 01:16:08,360
the American physics society and also

1335
01:16:13,810 --> 01:16:11,690
maybe a little bit lower brow magazines

1336
01:16:16,720 --> 01:16:13,820
like popular science and Popular

1337
01:16:20,740 --> 01:16:16,730
Mechanics but the thing that strike me

1338
01:16:23,110 --> 01:16:20,750
man I've seen this same type of very

1339
01:16:24,880 --> 01:16:23,120
vigorous discussion going on really over

1340
01:16:27,940 --> 01:16:24,890
the last few years in the editorial

1341
01:16:31,000 --> 01:16:27,950
columns of chemical and engineering news

1342
01:16:33,190 --> 01:16:31,010
physics today exactly the same kinds of

1343
01:16:36,940 --> 01:16:33,200
things that are being debated here and

1344
01:16:38,979 --> 01:16:36,950
so it's a very active and I would have

1345
01:16:41,260 --> 01:16:38,989
to say very polarized type of debate

1346
01:16:44,170 --> 01:16:41,270
already at this point which i think is

1347
01:16:46,870 --> 01:16:44,180
coming out very starkly here which i

1348
01:16:49,630 --> 01:16:46,880
think is unfortunate in many ways but

1349
01:16:52,420 --> 01:16:49,640
the other comment I will make which kind

1350
01:16:54,880 --> 01:16:52,430
of I think steps back and looks at this

1351
01:16:56,950 --> 01:16:54,890
from a much broader perspective if one

1352
01:16:58,870 --> 01:16:56,960
looks at some of the more recent

1353
01:17:01,720 --> 01:16:58,880
articles I think it's in Popular

1354
01:17:05,500 --> 01:17:01,730
Mechanics or it's in popular science

1355
01:17:07,600 --> 01:17:05,510
where a one of the they show us spread

1356
01:17:10,420 --> 01:17:07,610
and questions have come up here about

1357
01:17:13,150 --> 01:17:10,430
fossil fuels for example but they show

1358
01:17:14,950 --> 01:17:13,160
us spread on just exactly you know that

1359
01:17:16,370 --> 01:17:14,960
basically the title of the article is

1360
01:17:19,190 --> 01:17:16,380
whether or not

1361
01:17:20,780 --> 01:17:19,200
mmm additional drilling in the US for

1362
01:17:22,880 --> 01:17:20,790
example could make up for the shortfall

1363
01:17:26,540 --> 01:17:22,890
of oil and I think that one of the

1364
01:17:31,550 --> 01:17:26,550
contest's re on the panel members

1365
01:17:33,980 --> 01:17:31,560
mentioned this mentioned this that about

1366
01:17:36,650 --> 01:17:33,990
about the about the global oil supply

1367
01:17:38,990 --> 01:17:36,660
and so forth peaking the peak oil supply

1368
01:17:42,260 --> 01:17:39,000
actually being predicted by like log

1369
01:17:44,420 --> 01:17:42,270
very reliable logarithmic models and the

1370
01:17:46,790 --> 01:17:44,430
in the end the production in the US for

1371
01:17:49,580 --> 01:17:46,800
example for oil was predicted to peak

1372
01:17:51,950 --> 01:17:49,590
sometime in the late or mid 1970s which

1373
01:17:55,040 --> 01:17:51,960
is exactly what it did and now we're in

1374
01:17:58,070 --> 01:17:55,050
that same sort of predictive mode for

1375
01:18:00,860 --> 01:17:58,080
for for world oil but but back to the

1376
01:18:03,110 --> 01:18:00,870
the point relative to to US demand

1377
01:18:06,080 --> 01:18:03,120
versus production if you look at that

1378
01:18:08,750 --> 01:18:06,090
layout and that spread the U the the

1379
01:18:10,970 --> 01:18:08,760
production of US oil can only make up

1380
01:18:13,430 --> 01:18:10,980
maybe a third to a half of the total

1381
01:18:17,330 --> 01:18:13,440
demand in the United States so there's

1382
01:18:19,430 --> 01:18:17,340
absolutely no way that drilling I mean

1383
01:18:22,040 --> 01:18:19,440
with one looks at that the drilling in

1384
01:18:25,220 --> 01:18:22,050
nature in our domestic resources can

1385
01:18:27,410 --> 01:18:25,230
make that up the final so as an overall

1386
01:18:30,320 --> 01:18:27,420
perspective on oil

1387
01:18:33,290 --> 01:18:30,330
that's a mm-hmm that's a point but one

1388
01:18:35,560 --> 01:18:33,300
other thing here that may not people

1389
01:18:39,230 --> 01:18:35,570
here may not be as aware of is that

1390
01:18:41,240 --> 01:18:39,240
actually II the chemical industry in the

1391
01:18:44,480 --> 01:18:41,250
US is enjoying somewhat of a boom

1392
01:18:46,400 --> 01:18:44,490
because of this fracking the fracking

1393
01:18:50,359 --> 01:18:46,410
operations that are going on with

1394
01:18:53,780 --> 01:18:50,369
natural gas and the fact that the E

1395
01:18:55,850 --> 01:18:53,790
the cost of the feedstocks for natural

1396
01:18:57,439 --> 01:18:55,860
gas is so much lower than that for oil

1397
01:18:59,870 --> 01:18:57,449
so it's actually giving them a

1398
01:19:04,010 --> 01:18:59,880
competitive advantage now all right

1399
01:19:05,750 --> 01:19:04,020
however as has been pointed out and I

1400
01:19:07,430 --> 01:19:05,760
didn't hear any of the panelists mention

1401
01:19:10,459 --> 01:19:07,440
this I heard water mentioned and of

1402
01:19:12,859 --> 01:19:10,469
course co2 but methane which is being

1403
01:19:13,810 --> 01:19:12,869
released by these fractions are back

1404
01:19:17,359 --> 01:19:13,820
there

1405
01:19:20,870 --> 01:19:17,369
sorry fracking operations is actually

1406
01:19:23,330 --> 01:19:20,880
even more potent greenhouse gas than co2

1407
01:19:25,939 --> 01:19:23,340
so if somebody wants to make a comment

1408
01:19:29,000 --> 01:19:25,949
about that yeah we're actually making

1409
01:19:32,089 --> 01:19:29,010
measurements both upwind and downwind of

1410
01:19:35,629 --> 01:19:32,099
gas fields where a fracking takes place

1411
01:19:39,020 --> 01:19:35,639
and we can see a very significant

1412
01:19:44,859 --> 01:19:39,030
enhancement in methane downwind of these

1413
01:19:49,339 --> 01:19:44,869
fracking operations larger than expected

1414
01:19:52,700 --> 01:19:49,349
a good number we don't have yet but in a

1415
01:19:55,459 --> 01:19:52,710
couple of months maybe anybody else want

1416
01:19:59,720 --> 01:19:55,469
to comment on that there was a report

1417
01:20:03,550 --> 01:19:59,730
that an estimate that Australia in

1418
01:20:07,250 --> 01:20:03,560
Australia 13% of the greenhouse gas

1419
01:20:12,050 --> 01:20:07,260
effect being produced comes from the

1420
01:20:15,050 --> 01:20:12,060
gases released by living cattle yeah so

1421
01:20:17,060 --> 01:20:15,060
we've known these for decades okay

1422
01:20:19,160 --> 01:20:17,070
we're getting near the end of the

1423
01:20:22,399 --> 01:20:19,170
session we're going to have these two

1424
01:20:25,640 --> 01:20:22,409
speakers ask questions and that's going

1425
01:20:27,910 --> 01:20:25,650
to be it so just sitting back watching

1426
01:20:32,530 --> 01:20:27,920
this there there's been

1427
01:20:36,640 --> 01:20:32,540
a fair bit of acrimony some snickering

1428
01:20:42,000 --> 01:20:36,650
and but then in the end of it what

1429
01:20:44,979 --> 01:20:42,010
really matters are the facts and so one

1430
01:20:47,020 --> 01:20:44,989
question that wasn't it isn't resolved

1431
01:20:50,250 --> 01:20:47,030
in my mind and excuse me for not

1432
01:20:52,660 --> 01:20:50,260
remembering your names the sort of anti

1433
01:20:57,660 --> 01:20:52,670
anthropogenic gentleman in the black

1434
01:21:00,870 --> 01:20:57,670
suit mentioned the the large fluctuated

1435
01:21:04,600 --> 01:21:00,880
mentioned the the large fluctuations

1436
01:21:07,360 --> 01:21:04,610
over a long period of time and the

1437
01:21:12,240 --> 01:21:07,370
gentleman on the far left mentioned that

1438
01:21:15,040 --> 01:21:12,250
even taking those into account the the

1439
01:21:18,280 --> 01:21:15,050
warming that we're seeing right now far

1440
01:21:19,930 --> 01:21:18,290
exceeds that and so that's something

1441
01:21:23,320 --> 01:21:19,940
that where we could just look at some

1442
01:21:27,220 --> 01:21:23,330
data and pretty well resolve it and so

1443
01:21:28,660 --> 01:21:27,230
that sort of thing seems what it would

1444
01:21:34,150 --> 01:21:28,670
seem to be helpful to me another issue

1445
01:21:35,979 --> 01:21:34,160
was Henry mentioned the warming within

1446
01:21:39,459 --> 01:21:35,989
the earth that there's evidence from

1447
01:21:40,870 --> 01:21:39,469
deep mines and so on what sort of data

1448
01:21:44,350 --> 01:21:40,880
is there

1449
01:21:48,160 --> 01:21:44,360
I guess it seems like there are a few

1450
01:21:50,709 --> 01:21:48,170
very relevant things that look to me

1451
01:21:53,680 --> 01:21:50,719
like they we have enough data to answer

1452
01:21:56,830 --> 01:21:53,690
these these factual questions to get us

1453
01:21:59,229 --> 01:21:56,840
there am I wrong

1454
01:22:02,379 --> 01:21:59,239
are you what is he wrong did we have

1455
01:22:04,140 --> 01:22:02,389
enough data if you contact me right

1456
01:22:07,120 --> 01:22:04,150
after this I'll show you on my laptop

1457
01:22:10,720 --> 01:22:07,130
the 1500 years cycles on temperatures

1458
01:22:13,660 --> 01:22:10,730
were we were indeed warmer 5,000 years

1459
01:22:16,600 --> 01:22:13,670
ago oven today and indeed 1,000 years

1460
01:22:19,120 --> 01:22:16,610
ago as warm or warmer than today Ahmet

1461
01:22:21,820 --> 01:22:19,130
let's take another fact we even talked

1462
01:22:23,500 --> 01:22:21,830
about that up in the green Greenland the

1463
01:22:25,780 --> 01:22:23,510
Vikings a thousand years ago that's

1464
01:22:27,070 --> 01:22:25,790
common knowledge that they settled up

1465
01:22:29,859 --> 01:22:27,080
there a thousand years ago and they

1466
01:22:32,260 --> 01:22:29,869
could dig down four feet four to five

1467
01:22:33,459 --> 01:22:32,270
feet I think four graves to bury their

1468
01:22:35,050 --> 01:22:33,469
dead and then they had to move out of

1469
01:22:38,260 --> 01:22:35,060
there once cool but cooling started

1470
01:22:42,010 --> 01:22:38,270
coming back in it's very known and

1471
01:22:43,810 --> 01:22:42,020
remember 50% less ice six five thousand

1472
01:22:47,680 --> 01:22:43,820
years ago but I'll show you about data

1473
01:22:56,480 --> 01:22:47,690
on my laptop right after the talk here

1474
01:22:56,490 --> 01:23:13,560
[Music]

1475
01:23:24,790 --> 01:23:17,919
the data that different sides on this

1476
01:23:26,200 --> 01:23:24,800
issue focus on is not the same another

1477
01:23:29,950 --> 01:23:26,210
question from the audience and then

1478
01:23:31,720 --> 01:23:29,960
we'll bring it to an end

1479
01:23:34,630 --> 01:23:31,730
so this is a little bit different

1480
01:23:36,040 --> 01:23:34,640
actually which might be good on the

1481
01:23:37,420 --> 01:23:36,050
topic of clean energy if we're just

1482
01:23:38,890 --> 01:23:37,430
gonna talk about clean energy whenever

1483
01:23:40,510 --> 01:23:38,900
we have a debate about that in this

1484
01:23:42,010 --> 01:23:40,520
country it seems like there are

1485
01:23:43,780 --> 01:23:42,020
proponents of it that jump on board and

1486
01:23:45,070 --> 01:23:43,790
say well yeah I totally believe in clean

1487
01:23:48,250 --> 01:23:45,080
energy that sounds great

1488
01:23:49,240 --> 01:23:48,260
it should be clean coal and it seems

1489
01:23:50,590 --> 01:23:49,250
like they're saying that probably

1490
01:23:52,090 --> 01:23:50,600
because they have investment in clean

1491
01:23:53,740 --> 01:23:52,100
coal and they have a selfish motivation

1492
01:23:55,840 --> 01:23:53,750
for that or you have people who jump on

1493
01:23:57,580 --> 01:23:55,850
board and say and then you find out that

1494
01:23:59,770 --> 01:23:57,590
they're invested in in nuclear or

1495
01:24:01,480 --> 01:23:59,780
whatever how can we get around the

1496
01:24:03,730 --> 01:24:01,490
selfish motivation of people who want to

1497
01:24:05,770 --> 01:24:03,740
make money off of this process and just

1498
01:24:08,350 --> 01:24:05,780
talk about instead of jumping on

1499
01:24:10,030 --> 01:24:08,360
specific solutions talking about it

1500
01:24:12,250 --> 01:24:10,040
without that selfish piece in there do

1501
01:24:13,870 --> 01:24:12,260
you understand the question I I don't

1502
01:24:18,970 --> 01:24:13,880
have a personal interests in any

1503
01:24:22,750 --> 01:24:18,980
particular energy solution yeah I don't

1504
01:24:25,450 --> 01:24:22,760
like the answer this one I spoke about

1505
01:24:27,640 --> 01:24:25,460
the grant system around the world Europe

1506
01:24:31,090 --> 01:24:27,650
and the United States about the

1507
01:24:35,520 --> 01:24:31,100
manipulation of the grant system for the

1508
01:24:39,730 --> 01:24:35,530
global warming effort the government

1509
01:24:42,940 --> 01:24:39,740
provides a grant that's a political my

1510
01:24:47,410 --> 01:24:42,950
research I'm not funding funded by

1511
01:24:53,070 --> 01:24:47,420
anyone no one at all and this is the

1512
01:24:55,780 --> 01:24:53,080
difference this is real research would I

1513
01:24:57,550 --> 01:24:55,790
when I started it I didn't know how was

1514
01:24:59,230 --> 01:24:57,560
gonna come out and it came out financial

1515
01:25:01,060 --> 01:24:59,240
cycles and showing what's gonna be

1516
01:25:04,060 --> 01:25:01,070
happening in the future and I'm not

1517
01:25:04,870 --> 01:25:04,070
tended by any energy companies any

1518
01:25:09,980 --> 01:25:04,880
governments

1519
01:25:13,020 --> 01:25:09,990
it's just unbiased oh you are implying

1520
01:25:15,910 --> 01:25:13,030
[Music]

1521
01:25:18,790 --> 01:25:15,920
because you're getting you're getting

1522
01:25:21,370 --> 01:25:18,800
paid for it the opposite is true as a

1523
01:25:23,230 --> 01:25:21,380
student I became interested in the issue

1524
01:25:25,840 --> 01:25:23,240
because I thought this is going to be an

1525
01:25:29,110 --> 01:25:25,850
important problem I could have made a

1526
01:25:31,270 --> 01:25:29,120
lot more money personally if I had

1527
01:25:31,930 --> 01:25:31,280
stayed in solid state physics which I

1528
01:25:34,060 --> 01:25:31,940
was doing at

1529
01:25:37,390 --> 01:25:34,070
the time what L saying is you're getting

1530
01:25:39,250 --> 01:25:37,400
paid by a political entity that has has

1531
01:25:42,100 --> 01:25:39,260
their feet in theirs I'm getting paid by

1532
01:25:44,320 --> 01:25:42,110
no one great importance to society and

1533
01:25:46,450 --> 01:25:44,330
I'm glad governments want to invest in

1534
01:25:48,459 --> 01:25:46,460
investigating this issue they would be

1535
01:25:49,990 --> 01:25:48,469
shirking their responsibility if they

1536
01:25:55,360 --> 01:25:50,000
didn't but it's the government setting

1537
01:25:57,520 --> 01:25:55,370
up the policies in the grants well it's

1538
01:25:59,320 --> 01:25:57,530
true that the scientists at the

1539
01:26:02,560 --> 01:25:59,330
University of receiving grants from the

1540
01:26:06,070 --> 01:26:02,570
government my experience is that they

1541
01:26:07,959 --> 01:26:06,080
send in a grant proposal and then

1542
01:26:10,390 --> 01:26:07,969
probably do something different than

1543
01:26:13,660 --> 01:26:10,400
what the grant proposal said that

1544
01:26:15,610 --> 01:26:13,670
happens you were writing books and I

1545
01:26:19,630 --> 01:26:15,620
assume you're selling those books and so

1546
01:26:21,970 --> 01:26:19,640
you're pushing your position we all do

1547
01:26:25,290 --> 01:26:21,980
that we can't avoid it I will say this

1548
01:26:28,030 --> 01:26:25,300
about the discussion this evening I

1549
01:26:31,330 --> 01:26:28,040
gather from this morning and this

1550
01:26:35,590 --> 01:26:31,340
evening that both sides of the issue

1551
01:26:39,459 --> 01:26:35,600
agree that at the moment the situation

1552
01:26:40,560 --> 01:26:39,469
is warming some agree that it's going to

1553
01:26:43,930 --> 01:26:40,570
continue to warm

1554
01:26:46,479 --> 01:26:43,940
some say it's going to cool and I am

1555
01:26:48,880 --> 01:26:46,489
very happy to hear that there was a very

1556
01:26:53,170 --> 01:26:48,890
definite prediction made that by

1557
01:26:56,260 --> 01:26:53,180
something around 2 times 20 22 23

1558
01:26:59,170 --> 01:26:56,270
somewhere there 2018 well that's was

1559
01:27:02,740 --> 01:26:59,180
again and but ok so within the next 20

1560
01:27:04,150 --> 01:27:02,750
years or so 10 years or so either it's

1561
01:27:08,400 --> 01:27:04,160
going to be cool or it's going to be

1562
01:27:11,560 --> 01:27:08,410
hotter and whichever it is will tell us

1563
01:27:13,510 --> 01:27:11,570
the answer to this debate and I suspect

1564
01:27:16,090 --> 01:27:13,520
that it's not going to matter a lot that

1565
01:27:18,040 --> 01:27:16,100
10 years whether we've started to invest

1566
01:27:20,260 --> 01:27:18,050
in extra dikes in Holland or whether we

1567
01:27:21,729 --> 01:27:20,270
haven't I want to thank our panel

1568
01:27:25,230 --> 01:27:21,739
they've done a very good job and I

1569
01:27:26,130 --> 01:27:25,240
appreciate it thank you for being here